[June 18] 92L a Threat to the SE Caribbean; 93L to Bring Widespread Heavy Rain to North Gulf Coast

Florida Weather Blog Hurricane Blog Uncategorized

Tropical Expert Levi Cowan is a masters student in tropical meteorology at Florida State University.He is Watching Disturbed Weather in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico Next Week. You will be able to receive his Tropical Weather Updates right here.

At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
7.7 North, longitude 51.4 West.  The system is moving toward the
west near 23 mph (37 km/h).  A fast motion toward the west-
northwest is expected for the next 48 hours.  On the forecast track,
the disturbance is expected to move through the Windward Islands
Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the disturbance is expected to reach tropical storm intensity later
tonight or on Monday before it reaches the Windward Islands.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the disturbance is
gradually becoming better organized, and additional development is
likely during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

Visible/IR2 Satellite Image (click for loop):

IR Satellite Image

Official NHC Forecast NHC Forecast Track
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022017
800 PM AST Sun Jun 18 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...7.7N 51.4W
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Trinidad, Tobago, and Grenada.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* Trinidad
* Tobago
* Grenada

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
7.7 North, longitude 51.4 West.  The system is moving toward the
west near 23 mph (37 km/h).  A fast motion toward the west-
northwest is expected for the next 48 hours.  On the forecast track,
the disturbance is expected to move through the Windward Islands
Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the disturbance is expected to reach tropical storm intensity later
tonight or on Monday before it reaches the Windward Islands.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the disturbance is
gradually becoming better organized, and additional development is
likely during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area overnight Monday and Tuesday morning, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL:  The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the Windward Islands Monday
through Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.


Invest 93L
As of 18:00 UTC Jun 18, 2017:

Location: 19.0°N 87.1°W
Maximum Winds: 35 kt  Gusts: 45 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1008 mb
Radius of Circulation: 240 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 200 NM
Visible/IR2 Satellite Image (click for loop):IR Satellite Image
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is advisories on Potential Tropical
Cyclone Two, located several hundred miles east-southeast of the
southern Windward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located near the east coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms along with winds to gale force several
hundred miles to the east and northeast of the center.  Although
surface pressures are falling over the northwestern Caribbean Sea,
the low still lacks a well-defined center of circulation. However,
gradual development of this is system is expected while it moves
slowly north-northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula overnight,
and then over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and
Tuesday, where a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form.
Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected to continue over
portions of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, the
Cayman Islands, and western Cuba during the next few days. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
this system on Monday, if necessary.  For more information on this
system, please see the High Seas Forecast issued by the Tropical
Analysis and Forecast Branch.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

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