Here is your Pine Belt Outlook Today & Tropical Update….

Florida Weather Blog Hurricane Blog

Here is your Pine Belt Outlook Today into the Work Week …..

Today through Tonight:

A few very light rain showers have continued to move across 
southern Mississippi early this morning and will continue to do so through the day today. The atmosphere remains fairly saturated above 10,000 with mid- and upper-level moisture spreading out from Tropical Storm Harvey over the Texas coastline. The ArkLamiss will only be on the far fringe of any associated rain bands today and tonight, but it should be noted that Harvey`s very heavy rainfall and flooding will continue to affect southeast Texas and portions of southwest Louisiana.

Anyone planning to travel westward along the Gulf Coast
before the work week beings should consult weather forecasts and road conditions for those areas. Otherwise, the increased cloud cover and the possibility of showers and a few thunderstorms around our area will keep high temperatures on the cool side of normal today.

The chance of showers will continue into the overnight hours.

Monday through Saturday: Overall, very little change is expected in the forecast through the week as wet weather with slightly above normal morning lows and cooler than normal afternoon highs continue.

The Remains of Harvey look to remain pinched between a large mid high to the west and a subtropical ridge nosing in from the southeast.

NHC forecasts the center of weakening Tropical Storm Harvey to meander over east Texas through Thursday and model consensus still has the remnants centered west of our State Saturday, in the vicinity of the ArkLaTex. Much of Mississippi is expected to remain under a moist air mass supported by southerly flow and fairly high rain chances each day, especially over western/southern portions of the area.

The exception is Monday into Tuesday as a closed low is still expected to swing across the southern Great Lakes region and help send a weak cold front into northern Mississippi early Tuesday. This front will then stall across our area but drier air with PWATs less than an inch and a half are expected as far south as Interstate 20. This will keep the lowest rain chances across our north through Tuesday. PWATs will surge to near two and a quarter inches areawide by Wednesday morning though. This tropical air mass looks to remain in place the remainder of the week and support locally heavy rain at times as the remnants of Harvey draws a little closer to our Mississippi. The abundant moisture will hold morning lows slightly above normal for the latter half of next week but anticipated cloud cover and rain chances look to hold afternoon highs cooler than normal through the period.

 

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
400 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017

...HARVEY CAUSING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 97.7W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NW OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Port O'Connor has been
discontinued.

The Storm Surge Warning south of Port O'Connor has also been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port O'Connor to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port O'Connor to Sargent Texas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 97.7 West.  Harvey is
moving toward the south-southwest near 1 mph (2 km/h), and a slow
southeastward to east-southeastward motion is expected over the
next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center will remain
inland or move very near the coast of southeastern Texas through
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Harvey is
likely to become a tropical depression by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.  An NOS site near the entrance to Matagorda Bay
recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) with a gust
to 53 mph (85 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Harvey is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 15 to 25 inches over the middle and upper Texas
coast through Thursday.  Isolated storm totals may reach around
40 inches in this area.  Rainfall of this magnitude will cause
catastrophic and life-threatening flooding.  Elsewhere during the
same time period, Harvey is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 5 to 15 inches farther south toward the lower Texas
coast, farther west toward the the Texas Hill Country, and farther
east through southwest and central Louisiana.  A list of rainfall
observations compiled by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center can be
found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Aransas to Port O'Connor...1 to 3 ft
Port O'Connor to Sargent...2 to 4 ft
Sargent to High Island including Galveston Bay...1 to 3 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the
area of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances.  For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND:   Tropical storm conditions are occurring in an area near the
center and over portions of the tropical storm warning area along
the coast.  These conditions are likely to persist through this
morning.

SURF:  Swells generated by Harvey affecting the coasts of Texas
and Louisiana should subside through this morning.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight near
the middle and upper Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

 

cone graphic

[Image of WPC QPF U.S. rainfall potential]

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