Flood Warning United StatesNational Weather Alerts

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For All Or Portions Of The Following Rivers In Iowa...west Fork Des Moines River... Affecting The Following Counties In Iowa...emmet River Forecasts Include Observed Precipitation, As Well As Expected Precipitation Over The Next 48 Hours. ...flood Warning Remains In Effect Until After Midnight Tonight... ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 2:51pmExpires: October 24, 2018 at 1:00amTarget Area: Emmet

Flood Warning
...a Flood Warning Remains In Effect Until 1215 Pm Cdt Saturday For Northwestern Johnson County... At 1246 Pm Cdt, The Level At The Coralville Lake Reservoir Was 710.5 Feet And Slowly Falling. It Is Forecast To Drop Below 710 Feet About Tuesday October 23 And Below 707 Feet Late This Upcoming Week. Flooding Of Roads And Low Lying Areas Surrounding The Lake, And In ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 12:48pmExpires: October 24, 2018 at 2:23amTarget Area: Johnson

Flood Warning
River Forecasts Include Past Precipitation And Forecast Rainfall For The Next 48 Hours. ...flood Warning Remains In Effect Until Further Notice... The Flood Warning Continues For The Mississippi River At Gladstone Ld18. * Until Further Notice. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:09amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 3:07amTarget Area: Des Moines

Flood Warning
River Forecasts Include Past Precipitation And Forecast Rainfall For The Next 48 Hours. ...flood Warning Remains In Effect Until Further Notice... The Flood Warning Continues For The Mississippi River At Burlington. * Until Further Notice. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:09amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 3:07amTarget Area: Des Moines; Lee

Flood Warning
River Forecasts Include Past Precipitation And Forecast Rainfall For The Next 48 Hours. ...flood Warning Remains In Effect Until Further Notice... The Flood Warning Continues For The Mississippi River At Keithsburg. * Until Further Notice. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:09amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 3:07amTarget Area: Des Moines; Louisa

Flood Warning
River Forecasts Include Past Precipitation And Forecast Rainfall For The Next 48 Hours. ...flood Warning Remains In Effect Until Further Notice... The Flood Warning Continues For The Mississippi River At New Boston Ld17. * Until Further Notice. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:09amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 3:07amTarget Area: Louisa

Flood Warning
River Forecasts Include Past Precipitation And Forecast Rainfall For The Next 48 Hours. ...flood Warning Remains In Effect Until Further Notice... The Flood Warning Continues For The Mississippi River At Muscatine. * Until Further Notice. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:09amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 3:07amTarget Area: Louisa; Muscatine

Flood Warning
River Forecasts Include Past Precipitation And Forecast Rainfall For The Next 48 Hours. ...flood Warning Remains In Effect Until Today... The Flood Warning Continues For The Mississippi River At Dubuque. * Until Late This Evening. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:09amExpires: October 24, 2018 at 2:23amTarget Area: Dubuque; Jackson

Flood Warning
River Forecasts Include Past Precipitation And Forecast Rainfall For The Next 48 Hours. ...flood Warning Remains In Effect Until Wednesday Evening... The Flood Warning Continues For The Mississippi River At Camanche. * Until Wednesday Evening. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:09amExpires: October 26, 2018 at 7:00amTarget Area: Clinton; Scott

Flood Warning
River Forecasts Include Past Precipitation And Forecast Rainfall For The Next 48 Hours. ...flood Warning Remains In Effect Until Saturday Morning... The Flood Warning Continues For The Mississippi River At Keokuk Ld19. * Until Saturday Morning. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:09amExpires: October 28, 2018 at 7:00pmTarget Area: Lee

Flood Warning
River Forecasts Include Past Precipitation And Forecast Rainfall For The Next 48 Hours. ...flood Warning Remains In Effect Until Sunday Morning... The Flood Warning Continues For The Mississippi River At Rock Island Ld15. * Until Sunday Morning. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:09amExpires: October 29, 2018 at 7:00pmTarget Area: Muscatine; Scott

Flood Warning
River Forecasts Include Past Precipitation And Forecast Rainfall For The Next 48 Hours. ...flood Warning Remains In Effect Until Monday Morning... The Flood Warning Continues For The Mississippi River At Ill. City Ld16. * Until Monday Morning. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:09amExpires: October 30, 2018 at 1:00pmTarget Area: Muscatine

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For... Missouri River At Nebraska City Affecting Fremont And Otoe Counties. ...the Flood Warning Continues For... Missouri River At Brownville Affecting Atchison And Nemaha Counties. Missouri River At Rulo Affecting Holt And Richardson Counties. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 9:34amExpires: October 26, 2018 at 7:00amTarget Area: Fremont

Flood Warning
River Forecasts Include Past Precipitation And Forecast Rainfall For The Next 48 Hours. ...flood Warning Now In Effect Until This Evening... The Flood Warning Continues For The Wapsipinicon River Near De Witt 4s. * Until This Evening. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 9:17amExpires: October 24, 2018 at 10:00amTarget Area: Clinton; Scott

Flood Warning
River Forecasts Include Past Precipitation And Forecast Rainfall For The Next 48 Hours. ...flood Warning Now In Effect Until This Evening... The Flood Warning Continues For The Cedar River Near Conesville. * Until This Evening. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 8:12amExpires: October 24, 2018 at 8:42amTarget Area: Cedar; Louisa; Muscatine

Flood Warning
River Forecasts Include Past Precipitation And Forecast Rainfall For The Next 48 Hours. ...flood Warning Remains In Effect Until Friday Morning... The Flood Warning Continues For The Iowa River At Marengo. * Until Friday Morning. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 8:12amExpires: October 27, 2018 at 1:00pmTarget Area: Iowa

Flood Warning
River Forecasts Include Past Precipitation And Forecast Rainfall For The Next 48 Hours. ...flood Warning Now In Effect Until Friday Evening... The Flood Warning Continues For The Iowa River At Wapello. * Until Friday Evening. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 8:12amExpires: October 28, 2018 at 7:00amTarget Area: Louisa

Flood Warning
River Forecasts Include Past Precipitation And Forecast Rainfall For The Next 48 Hours. ...flood Warning Now In Effect Until Monday Morning... The Flood Warning Continues For The Iowa River At Oakville. * Until Monday Morning. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 8:12amExpires: October 30, 2018 at 1:00pmTarget Area: Louisa

Flood Warning
.updated Flood Information On The Wapsipinicon, Cedar, And Iowa Rivers. River Forecasts Include Past Precipitation And Forecast Rainfall For The Next 48 Hours. ...flood Warning Remains In Effect Until Monday Morning... The Flood Warning Continues For ...Read More.
Effective: October 21, 2018 at 8:20pmExpires: October 23, 2018 at 7:00pmTarget Area: Louisa

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Illinois...missouri... At Canton Lock And Dam 20 At Lagrange At Quincy At Quincy Lock And Dam 21 ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:35amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 11:34amTarget Area: Adams

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Illinois...missouri... At Canton Lock And Dam 20 At Lagrange At Quincy At Quincy Lock And Dam 21 ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:35amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 11:34amTarget Area: Adams

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Illinois...missouri... At Canton Lock And Dam 20 At Lagrange At Quincy At Quincy Lock And Dam 21 ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:35amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 11:34amTarget Area: Adams

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Illinois...missouri... At Canton Lock And Dam 20 At Lagrange At Quincy At Quincy Lock And Dam 21 ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:35amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 11:34amTarget Area: Calhoun

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Illinois...missouri... At Canton Lock And Dam 20 At Lagrange At Quincy At Quincy Lock And Dam 21 ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:35amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 11:34amTarget Area: Calhoun

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Illinois...missouri... At Canton Lock And Dam 20 At Lagrange At Quincy At Quincy Lock And Dam 21 ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:35amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 11:34amTarget Area: Jersey

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Illinois...missouri... At Canton Lock And Dam 20 At Lagrange At Quincy At Quincy Lock And Dam 21 ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:35amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 11:34amTarget Area: Pike

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Illinois...missouri... At Canton Lock And Dam 20 At Lagrange At Quincy At Quincy Lock And Dam 21 ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:35amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 11:34amTarget Area: Pike

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Illinois...missouri... At Canton Lock And Dam 20 At Lagrange At Quincy At Quincy Lock And Dam 21 ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:35amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 11:34amTarget Area: Pike

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Illinois...missouri... At Canton Lock And Dam 20 At Lagrange At Quincy At Quincy Lock And Dam 21 ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:35amExpires: October 26, 2018 at 7:00amTarget Area: Adams

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Illinois...missouri... At Canton Lock And Dam 20 At Lagrange At Quincy At Quincy Lock And Dam 21 ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:35amExpires: October 27, 2018 at 1:00pmTarget Area: Madison

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Illinois...missouri... At Canton Lock And Dam 20 At Lagrange At Quincy At Quincy Lock And Dam 21 ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:35amExpires: October 28, 2018 at 7:00amTarget Area: Jackson; Randolph

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Illinois.. Illinois River At Hardin .this Flood Warning Is A Result Of Mississippi River Backwater... The Flood Warning Continues For The Illinois River At Hardin * Until Sunday Afternoon. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:30amExpires: October 28, 2018 at 1:00pmTarget Area: Calhoun; Greene; Jersey

Flood Warning
River Forecasts Include Past Precipitation And Forecast Rainfall For The Next 48 Hours. ...flood Warning Remains In Effect Until Further Notice... The Flood Warning Continues For The Mississippi River At Gregory Landing. * Until Further Notice. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:09amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 3:07amTarget Area: Hancock

Flood Warning
River Forecasts Include Past Precipitation And Forecast Rainfall For The Next 48 Hours. ...flood Warning Remains In Effect Until Further Notice... The Flood Warning Continues For The Mississippi River At Burlington. * Until Further Notice. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:09amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 3:07amTarget Area: Hancock; Henderson

Flood Warning
River Forecasts Include Past Precipitation And Forecast Rainfall For The Next 48 Hours. ...flood Warning Remains In Effect Until Further Notice... The Flood Warning Continues For The Mississippi River At Gladstone Ld18. * Until Further Notice. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:09amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 3:07amTarget Area: Henderson

Flood Warning
River Forecasts Include Past Precipitation And Forecast Rainfall For The Next 48 Hours. ...flood Warning Remains In Effect Until Further Notice... The Flood Warning Continues For The Mississippi River At Keithsburg. * Until Further Notice. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:09amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 3:07amTarget Area: Henderson; Mercer

Flood Warning
River Forecasts Include Past Precipitation And Forecast Rainfall For The Next 48 Hours. ...flood Warning Remains In Effect Until Further Notice... The Flood Warning Continues For The Mississippi River At New Boston Ld17. * Until Further Notice. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:09amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 3:07amTarget Area: Mercer

Flood Warning
River Forecasts Include Past Precipitation And Forecast Rainfall For The Next 48 Hours. ...flood Warning Remains In Effect Until Further Notice... The Flood Warning Continues For The Mississippi River At Muscatine. * Until Further Notice. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:09amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 3:07amTarget Area: Mercer; Rock Island

Flood Warning
River Forecasts Include Past Precipitation And Forecast Rainfall For The Next 48 Hours. ...flood Warning Remains In Effect Until Today... The Flood Warning Continues For The Mississippi River At Dubuque. * Until Late This Evening. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:09amExpires: October 24, 2018 at 2:23amTarget Area: Jo Daviess

Flood Warning
River Forecasts Include Past Precipitation And Forecast Rainfall For The Next 48 Hours. ...flood Warning Remains In Effect Until Wednesday Evening... The Flood Warning Continues For The Mississippi River At Camanche. * Until Wednesday Evening. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:09amExpires: October 26, 2018 at 7:00amTarget Area: Rock Island; Whiteside

Flood Warning
River Forecasts Include Past Precipitation And Forecast Rainfall For The Next 48 Hours. ...flood Warning Remains In Effect Until Saturday Morning... The Flood Warning Continues For The Mississippi River At Keokuk Ld19. * Until Saturday Morning. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:09amExpires: October 28, 2018 at 7:00pmTarget Area: Hancock

Flood Warning
River Forecasts Include Past Precipitation And Forecast Rainfall For The Next 48 Hours. ...flood Warning Remains In Effect Until Sunday Morning... The Flood Warning Continues For The Mississippi River At Rock Island Ld15. * Until Sunday Morning. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:09amExpires: October 29, 2018 at 7:00pmTarget Area: Rock Island

Flood Warning
River Forecasts Include Past Precipitation And Forecast Rainfall For The Next 48 Hours. ...flood Warning Remains In Effect Until Monday Morning... The Flood Warning Continues For The Mississippi River At Ill. City Ld16. * Until Monday Morning. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:09amExpires: October 30, 2018 at 1:00pmTarget Area: Rock Island

Flood Warning
River Forecasts Include Past Precipitation And Forecast Rainfall For The Next 48 Hours. ...flood Warning Now In Effect Until Wednesday Evening... The Flood Warning Continues For The Rock River At Moline. * Until Wednesday Evening. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 8:12amExpires: October 26, 2018 at 7:00amTarget Area: Henry; Rock Island

Flood Warning
River Forecasts Include Past Precipitation And Forecast Rainfall For The Next 48 Hours. ...flood Warning Now In Effect Until Friday Morning... The Flood Warning Continues For The Pecatonica River At Freeport. * Until Friday Morning. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 8:12amExpires: October 27, 2018 at 1:00pmTarget Area: Stephenson

Flood Warning
River Forecasts Include Past Precipitation And Forecast Rainfall For The Next 48 Hours. ...flood Warning Now In Effect Until Monday Morning... The Flood Warning Continues For The Rock River Near Joslin. * Until Monday Morning. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 8:12amExpires: October 30, 2018 at 1:00pmTarget Area: Henry; Rock Island; Whiteside

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Illinois... Rock River At Rockton Affecting Winnebago County Rock River At Latham Park Affecting Winnebago County Pecatonica River Near Shirland Affecting Winnebago County The Flood Warning Continues For ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 7:52amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 7:00amTarget Area: Winnebago

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Illinois... Rock River At Rockton Affecting Winnebago County Rock River At Latham Park Affecting Winnebago County Pecatonica River Near Shirland Affecting Winnebago County The Flood Warning Continues For ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 7:52amExpires: October 24, 2018 at 7:00pmTarget Area: Winnebago

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Illinois... Rock River At Rockton Affecting Winnebago County Rock River At Latham Park Affecting Winnebago County Pecatonica River Near Shirland Affecting Winnebago County The Flood Warning Continues For ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 7:52amExpires: October 27, 2018 at 7:00pmTarget Area: Winnebago

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Illinois And Missouri... Mississippi River At Cape Girardeau And Thebes .minor Flooding Continues Along The Mississippi River At Cape Girardeau And At Thebes. The River Has Crested, And Water Levels Are Slowly Falling. The River Is Forecast To Fall Below Flood Stage ...Read More.
Effective: October 21, 2018 at 7:25pmExpires: October 25, 2018 at 3:00amTarget Area: Alexander

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Illinois And Missouri... Mississippi River At Cape Girardeau And Thebes .minor Flooding Continues Along The Mississippi River At Cape Girardeau And At Thebes. The River Has Crested, And Water Levels Are Slowly Falling. The River Is Forecast To Fall Below Flood Stage ...Read More.
Effective: October 21, 2018 at 7:25pmExpires: October 28, 2018 at 1:00pmTarget Area: Alexander; Jackson; Union

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Kansas... Missouri... Missouri River At St Joseph Affecting Doniphan...andrew And Buchanan Counties. The Flood Warning Continues For The Missouri River At St Joseph. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 9:55amExpires: October 26, 2018 at 1:00pmTarget Area: Doniphan

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Streams In Kansas.. Big Blue River Near Blue Rapids Affecting Marshall County The Flood Warning Continues For The Big Blue River Near Blue Rapids. * Until Further Notice. * At 8:15 Am Monday The Stage Was 29.0 Feet. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 8:53amExpires: October 22, 2018 at 4:52pmTarget Area: Marshall

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Is Cancelled For The Following Rivers In Louisiana... Calcasieu River Near Glenmora ...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Louisiana... Calcasieu River Near Salt Water Barrier ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 10:27amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 12:27amTarget Area: Calcasieu

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Is Cancelled For The Following Rivers In Louisiana... Calcasieu River Near Glenmora ...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Louisiana... Calcasieu River Near Salt Water Barrier ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 10:27amExpires: October 26, 2018 at 1:00pmTarget Area: Calcasieu

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Illinois...missouri... At Canton Lock And Dam 20 At Lagrange At Quincy At Quincy Lock And Dam 21 ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:35amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 11:34amTarget Area: Lewis

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Illinois...missouri... At Canton Lock And Dam 20 At Lagrange At Quincy At Quincy Lock And Dam 21 ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:35amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 11:34amTarget Area: Lincoln

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Illinois...missouri... At Canton Lock And Dam 20 At Lagrange At Quincy At Quincy Lock And Dam 21 ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:35amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 11:34amTarget Area: Marion

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Illinois...missouri... At Canton Lock And Dam 20 At Lagrange At Quincy At Quincy Lock And Dam 21 ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:35amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 11:34amTarget Area: Marion

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Illinois...missouri... At Canton Lock And Dam 20 At Lagrange At Quincy At Quincy Lock And Dam 21 ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:35amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 11:34amTarget Area: Marion

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Illinois...missouri... At Canton Lock And Dam 20 At Lagrange At Quincy At Quincy Lock And Dam 21 ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:35amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 11:34amTarget Area: Pike

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Illinois...missouri... At Canton Lock And Dam 20 At Lagrange At Quincy At Quincy Lock And Dam 21 ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:35amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 11:34amTarget Area: Pike

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Illinois...missouri... At Canton Lock And Dam 20 At Lagrange At Quincy At Quincy Lock And Dam 21 ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:35amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 11:34amTarget Area: Ralls

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Illinois...missouri... At Canton Lock And Dam 20 At Lagrange At Quincy At Quincy Lock And Dam 21 ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:35amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 11:34amTarget Area: St. Charles

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Illinois...missouri... At Canton Lock And Dam 20 At Lagrange At Quincy At Quincy Lock And Dam 21 ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:35amExpires: October 26, 2018 at 7:00amTarget Area: Lewis

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Illinois...missouri... At Canton Lock And Dam 20 At Lagrange At Quincy At Quincy Lock And Dam 21 ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:35amExpires: October 27, 2018 at 1:00pmTarget Area: St. Charles

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Illinois...missouri... At Canton Lock And Dam 20 At Lagrange At Quincy At Quincy Lock And Dam 21 ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:35amExpires: October 28, 2018 at 7:00amTarget Area: Perry; Ste. Genevieve

Flood Warning
River Forecasts Include Past Precipitation And Forecast Rainfall For The Next 48 Hours. ...flood Warning Remains In Effect Until Further Notice... The Flood Warning Continues For The Mississippi River At Gregory Landing. * Until Further Notice. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:09amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 3:07amTarget Area: Clark

Flood Warning
River Forecasts Include Past Precipitation And Forecast Rainfall For The Next 48 Hours. ...flood Warning Remains In Effect Until Saturday Morning... The Flood Warning Continues For The Mississippi River At Keokuk Ld19. * Until Saturday Morning. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 11:09amExpires: October 28, 2018 at 7:00pmTarget Area: Clark

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Kansas... Missouri... Missouri River At St Joseph Affecting Doniphan...andrew And Buchanan Counties. The Flood Warning Continues For The Missouri River At St Joseph. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 9:55amExpires: October 26, 2018 at 1:00pmTarget Area: Andrew; Buchanan

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For... Missouri River At Nebraska City Affecting Fremont And Otoe Counties. ...the Flood Warning Continues For... Missouri River At Brownville Affecting Atchison And Nemaha Counties. Missouri River At Rulo Affecting Holt And Richardson Counties. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 9:34amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 12:33amTarget Area: Atchison

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For... Missouri River At Nebraska City Affecting Fremont And Otoe Counties. ...the Flood Warning Continues For... Missouri River At Brownville Affecting Atchison And Nemaha Counties. Missouri River At Rulo Affecting Holt And Richardson Counties. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 9:34amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 12:33amTarget Area: Holt

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Missouri.. Cuivre River At Old Monroe .this Flood Warning Is A Result Of Mississippi River Backwater... The Flood Warning Continues For The Cuivre River At Old Monroe * Until Further Notice. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 9:27amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 9:26amTarget Area: Lincoln

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Missouri.. Meramec River Near Arnold .this Flood Warning Is A Result Of Mississippi River Backwater... The Flood Warning Continues For The Meramec River Near Arnold * Until Late Friday Night. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 9:12amExpires: October 27, 2018 at 1:00amTarget Area: Jefferson; St. Louis

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Illinois And Missouri... Mississippi River At Cape Girardeau And Thebes .minor Flooding Continues Along The Mississippi River At Cape Girardeau And At Thebes. The River Has Crested, And Water Levels Are Slowly Falling. The River Is Forecast To Fall Below Flood Stage ...Read More.
Effective: October 21, 2018 at 7:25pmExpires: October 25, 2018 at 3:00amTarget Area: Scott

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Illinois And Missouri... Mississippi River At Cape Girardeau And Thebes .minor Flooding Continues Along The Mississippi River At Cape Girardeau And At Thebes. The River Has Crested, And Water Levels Are Slowly Falling. The River Is Forecast To Fall Below Flood Stage ...Read More.
Effective: October 21, 2018 at 7:25pmExpires: October 28, 2018 at 1:00pmTarget Area: Cape Girardeau; Perry; Scott

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In North Carolina... Lower Roanoke River At Roanoke Rapids Affecting Halifax And Northampton Counties Lower Roanoke River Near Scotland Neck Affecting Halifax And Northampton Counties ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 10:19amExpires: October 22, 2018 at 10:19pmTarget Area: Halifax; Northampton

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In North Carolina... Lower Roanoke River At Roanoke Rapids Affecting Halifax And Northampton Counties Lower Roanoke River Near Scotland Neck Affecting Halifax And Northampton Counties ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 10:19amExpires: October 22, 2018 at 10:19pmTarget Area: Halifax; Northampton

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Has Been Extended For The Following Rivers... Lumber Near Lumberton Affecting Robeson County Nc Great Pee Dee At Pee Dee Affecting Marion And Florence Counties Sc ...flood Warning Now In Effect Until This Evening... The Flood Warning Continues For The Lumber Near Lumberton ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 9:57amExpires: October 22, 2018 at 7:00pmTarget Area: Robeson

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For... Missouri River At Nebraska City Affecting Fremont And Otoe Counties. ...the Flood Warning Continues For... Missouri River At Brownville Affecting Atchison And Nemaha Counties. Missouri River At Rulo Affecting Holt And Richardson Counties. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 9:34amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 12:33amTarget Area: Nemaha

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For... Missouri River At Nebraska City Affecting Fremont And Otoe Counties. ...the Flood Warning Continues For... Missouri River At Brownville Affecting Atchison And Nemaha Counties. Missouri River At Rulo Affecting Holt And Richardson Counties. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 9:34amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 12:33amTarget Area: Richardson

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For... Missouri River At Nebraska City Affecting Fremont And Otoe Counties. ...the Flood Warning Continues For... Missouri River At Brownville Affecting Atchison And Nemaha Counties. Missouri River At Rulo Affecting Holt And Richardson Counties. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 9:34amExpires: October 26, 2018 at 7:00amTarget Area: Otoe

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Is Cancelled For The Following Rivers In Iowa... Little Sioux River At Linn Grove ...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Nebraska...south Dakota... Missouri River At Niobrara Missouri River At Springfield ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 8:15amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 12:14pmTarget Area: Knox

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Is Cancelled For The Following Rivers In Iowa... Little Sioux River At Linn Grove ...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Nebraska...south Dakota... Missouri River At Niobrara Missouri River At Springfield ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 8:15amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 12:14pmTarget Area: Knox

Flood Warning
...the National Weather Service In Sioux Falls Has Issued A Flood Warning For The Following Rivers In Nebraska...south Dakota... Missouri River Near Greenwood .the Following River Forecasts Include Forecast Precipitation Through Tonight. Any Additional Future Rains Could Affect The Crest Forecasts. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 8:12amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 12:11pmTarget Area: Boyd

Flood Warning
The Flood Warning Continues For The Santee River Near Jamestown. * At 9 Am Monday The Stage Was 10.1 Feet. * Flood Stage Is 10.0 Feet. * Minor Flooding Is Occurring. * Forecast, The River Is Expected To Drop Below Flood Stage Early ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 10:08amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 5:00pmTarget Area: Berkeley; Georgetown; Williamsburg

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Has Been Extended For The Following Rivers... Lumber Near Lumberton Affecting Robeson County Nc Great Pee Dee At Pee Dee Affecting Marion And Florence Counties Sc ...flood Warning Now In Effect Until Wednesday Afternoon... The Flood Warning Continues For The Great Pee Dee At Pee Dee ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 9:57amExpires: October 24, 2018 at 2:00pmTarget Area: Florence; Marion

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Is Cancelled For The Following Rivers In Iowa... Little Sioux River At Linn Grove ...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Nebraska...south Dakota... Missouri River At Niobrara Missouri River At Springfield ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 7:15amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 11:14amTarget Area: Bon Homme

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Is Cancelled For The Following Rivers In Iowa... Little Sioux River At Linn Grove ...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Nebraska...south Dakota... Missouri River At Niobrara Missouri River At Springfield ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 7:15amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 11:14amTarget Area: Bon Homme

Flood Warning
...the National Weather Service In Sioux Falls Has Issued A Flood Warning For The Following Rivers In Nebraska...south Dakota... Missouri River Near Greenwood .the Following River Forecasts Include Forecast Precipitation Through Tonight. Any Additional Future Rains Could Affect The Crest Forecasts. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 7:12amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 11:11amTarget Area: Charles Mix

Flood Warning
...the National Weather Service In Austin/san Antonio Has Issued A Flood Warning For The... Devils River...rio Grande The National Weather Service In Austin/san Antonio Has Issued A * Flood Warning For The Rio Grande At Foster Ranch. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 3:33pmExpires: October 23, 2018 at 4:17pmTarget Area: Val Verde

Flood Warning
...the National Weather Service In Austin/san Antonio Has Issued A Flood Warning For The... Devils River...rio Grande The National Weather Service In Austin/san Antonio Has Issued A * Flood Warning For The Devils River At Pafford Crossing Nr Comstock. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 3:33pmExpires: October 24, 2018 at 5:00amTarget Area: Val Verde

Flood Warning
...the National Weather Service In Austin/san Antonio Has Issued A Flood Warning For The... Devils River...rio Grande The National Weather Service In Austin/san Antonio Has Issued A * Flood Warning For The Devils River At Cauthorn Ranch Near Juno. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 3:33pmExpires: October 24, 2018 at 11:21amTarget Area: Val Verde

Flood Warning
...the National Weather Service In Austin/san Antonio Has Issued A Flood Warning For The... Devils River...rio Grande The National Weather Service In Austin/san Antonio Has Issued A * Flood Warning For The Devils River At Bakers Crossing 19n Of Comstock. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 3:33pmExpires: October 26, 2018 at 7:00amTarget Area: Val Verde

Flood Warning
...the National Weather Service In Corpus Christi Has Issued A Flood Warning For The Following Rivers In Texas... Nueces River Near Three Rivers Affecting Live Oak County Guadalupe River At Victoria Affecting Victoria County .recent Or Anticipated Heavy Rainfall Over The Aforementioned River Basins Will Result In River Rises Above Flood Stage ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 3:15pmExpires: October 23, 2018 at 9:15amTarget Area: Live Oak

Flood Warning
...the National Weather Service In Corpus Christi Has Issued A Flood Warning For The Following Rivers In Texas... Nueces River Near Three Rivers Affecting Live Oak County Guadalupe River At Victoria Affecting Victoria County .recent Or Anticipated Heavy Rainfall Over The Aforementioned River Basins Will Result In River Rises Above Flood Stage ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 3:15pmExpires: October 23, 2018 at 9:15amTarget Area: Victoria

Flood Warning
...the National Weather Service In Corpus Christi Has Issued A Flood Warning For The Following Rivers In Texas... Rio Grande At Laredo Affecting Webb County .recent Or Anticipated Heavy Rainfall Over The Aforementioned River Basins Will Result In River Rises Above Flood Stage During The Next Few Days. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 3:04pmExpires: October 26, 2018 at 12:42pmTarget Area: Webb

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Texas... Clear Fork Brazos River Near Fort Griffin Affecting Shackelford And Throckmorton Counties The Flood Warning Continues For The Clear Fork Brazos River Near Fort Griffin. * Until Tuesday Afternoon. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 2:47pmExpires: October 23, 2018 at 12:04pmTarget Area: Shackelford; Throckmorton

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Areas In Texas... Brazos River Near South Bend Affecting Young County The Flood Warning Continues For The Brazos River Near South Bend. * At 0130 Pm Monday The Stage Was 23.30 Feet. * Flood Stage Is 21 Feet. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 2:36pmExpires: October 25, 2018 at 1:00pmTarget Area: Young

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Texas... Nueces River Near Asherton Affecting Dimmit County The Flood Warning Continues For The Nueces River Near Asherton. * At 1:30 Pm Monday The Stage Was 26.9 Feet. * Flood Stage Is 20.0 Feet. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 2:09pmExpires: October 23, 2018 at 8:09amTarget Area: Dimmit

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Areas In Texas... Trinity River At Trinidad Affecting Henderson And Navarro Counties The Flood Warning Continues For The Trinity River At Trinidad. * At 0100 Pm Monday The Stage Was 44.56 Feet. * Flood Stage Is 33 Feet. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 2:03pmExpires: October 25, 2018 at 10:09pmTarget Area: Henderson; Navarro

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Areas In Texas... Trinity River Near Long Lake (oakwood) Affecting Anderson... Freestone And Leon Counties The Flood Warning Continues For The Trinity River Near Long Lake (oakwood). * At 0130 Pm Monday The Stage Was 42.23 Feet. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 2:02pmExpires: October 23, 2018 at 2:02amTarget Area: Anderson; Freestone; Leon

Flood Warning
The Flood Warning Continues For The White Oak Creek Near Talco, Texas. * Until Tuesday Evening...or Until The Warning Is Cancelled. * At 9:15 Am Monday The Stage Was 16.7 Feet. * Minor Flooding Is Occurring And Minor Flooding Is Forecast. * Flood Stage Is 16 Feet. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 10:20amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 9:00pmTarget Area: Franklin; Morris; Titus

Flood Warning
The Flood Warning Continues For The Sulphur River Near Talco, Texas. * Until Wednesday Morning...or Until The Warning Is Cancelled. * At 9:45 Am Monday The Stage Was 22.5 Feet. * Minor Flooding Is Occurring And Minor Flooding Is Forecast. * Flood Stage Is 20 Feet. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 10:20amExpires: October 24, 2018 at 6:00amTarget Area: Franklin; Morris; Red River; Titus

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Extended Until Late Wednesday Night...the Flood Warning Continues For The Neches River Near Diboll, Texas. * Until Late Wednesday Night...or Until The Warning Is Cancelled. * At 9:15 Am Monday The Stage Was 12.7 Feet. * Minor Flooding Is Occurring And Minor Flooding Is Forecast. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 10:18amExpires: October 25, 2018 at 4:00amTarget Area: Angelina; Houston; Polk; Trinity; Tyler

Flood Warning
The Flood Warning Continues For The Sabine River Near Mineola, Texas. * Until Further Notice...or Until The Warning Is Cancelled. * At 9:15 Am Monday The Stage Was 17.9 Feet. * Minor Flooding Is Occurring And Minor Flooding Is Forecast. * Flood Stage Is 14 Feet. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 10:17amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 10:17amTarget Area: Smith; Wood

Flood Warning
The Flood Warning Continues For The Sabine River Near Hawkins, Texas. * From Wednesday Evening Until Further Notice...or Until The Warning Is Cancelled. * At 9:45 Am Monday The Stage Was 20.1 Feet. * Minor Flooding Is Forecast. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 10:17amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 10:17amTarget Area: Smith; Upshur; Wood

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Areas In Texas... South Sulphur River Near Cooper Affecting Delta And Hopkins Counties The Flood Warning Continues For The South Sulphur River Near Cooper. * At 0915 Am Monday The Stage Was 17.78 Feet. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 9:28amExpires: October 22, 2018 at 9:29pmTarget Area: Delta; Hopkins

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Texas... Frio River At Tilden Affecting Live Oak And Mcmullen Counties Nueces River At Cotulla Affecting La Salle County Nueces River Near Tilden Affecting Mcmullen County Nueces River Near Bluntzer Affecting Jim Wells...nueces And San Patricio Counties ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 9:21amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 3:21amTarget Area: Jim Wells; Nueces; San Patricio

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Texas... Frio River At Tilden Affecting Live Oak And Mcmullen Counties Nueces River At Cotulla Affecting La Salle County Nueces River Near Tilden Affecting Mcmullen County Nueces River Near Bluntzer Affecting Jim Wells...nueces And San Patricio Counties ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 9:21amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 3:21amTarget Area: La Salle

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Texas... Frio River At Tilden Affecting Live Oak And Mcmullen Counties Nueces River At Cotulla Affecting La Salle County Nueces River Near Tilden Affecting Mcmullen County Nueces River Near Bluntzer Affecting Jim Wells...nueces And San Patricio Counties ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 9:21amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 3:21amTarget Area: McMullen

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Texas... Frio River At Tilden Affecting Live Oak And Mcmullen Counties Nueces River At Cotulla Affecting La Salle County Nueces River Near Tilden Affecting Mcmullen County Nueces River Near Bluntzer Affecting Jim Wells...nueces And San Patricio Counties ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 9:21amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 5:00pmTarget Area: Live Oak; McMullen

Flood Warning
A River Flood Warning Remains In Effect For The Trinity River. The Flood Warning Continues For The Trinity River In Liberty * Until Further Notice...or Until The Warning Is Canceled. * At 0815 Am Monday The Stage Was 29.9 Feet. * Major Flooding Is Occurring And Major Flooding Is Forecast. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 9:14amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 9:13amTarget Area: Chambers; Liberty

Flood Warning
A River Flood Warning Remains In Effect For The Trinity River. The Flood Warning Continues For The Trinity River Near Moss Bluff * Until Further Notice...or Until The Warning Is Canceled. * At 0830 Am Monday The Stage Was 14.7 Feet. * Minor Flooding Is Occurring And Moderate Flooding Is Forecast. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 9:14amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 9:13amTarget Area: Chambers; Liberty

Flood Warning
A River Flood Warning Remains In Effect For The Trinity River. ...flood Warning Extended Until Wednesday Evening...the Flood Warning Continues For The Trinity River Near Riverside * Until Wednesday Evening...or Until The Warning Is Canceled. * At 0833 Am Monday The Stage Was 135.2 Feet. ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 9:14amExpires: October 24, 2018 at 10:00pmTarget Area: Trinity; Walker

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Texas... Guadalupe River Near Bloomington Affecting Calhoun...refugio And Victoria Counties .recent Or Anticipated Rainfall Over The Area Will Keep The Aforementioned Rivers Above Flood Stage For The Next Few Days. These River Forecasts Are Based On Forecast Rainfall Over The ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 8:53amExpires: October 23, 2018 at 5:00amTarget Area: Calhoun; Refugio; Victoria

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Wisconsin... Rock River At Fort Atkinson Affecting Jefferson County Rock River Near Lake Koshkonong Affecting Jefferson And Rock Counties Rock River At Newville Affecting Rock County ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 3:40pmExpires: October 23, 2018 at 3:40amTarget Area: Green Lake

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Wisconsin... Rock River At Fort Atkinson Affecting Jefferson County Rock River Near Lake Koshkonong Affecting Jefferson And Rock Counties Rock River At Newville Affecting Rock County ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 3:40pmExpires: October 23, 2018 at 3:40amTarget Area: Rock

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Wisconsin... Rock River At Fort Atkinson Affecting Jefferson County Rock River Near Lake Koshkonong Affecting Jefferson And Rock Counties Rock River At Newville Affecting Rock County ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 3:40pmExpires: October 23, 2018 at 3:40amTarget Area: Rock

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Wisconsin... Rock River At Fort Atkinson Affecting Jefferson County Rock River Near Lake Koshkonong Affecting Jefferson And Rock Counties Rock River At Newville Affecting Rock County ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 3:40pmExpires: October 23, 2018 at 1:00pmTarget Area: Jefferson

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Wisconsin... Rock River At Fort Atkinson Affecting Jefferson County Rock River Near Lake Koshkonong Affecting Jefferson And Rock Counties Rock River At Newville Affecting Rock County ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 3:40pmExpires: October 24, 2018 at 7:00pmTarget Area: Green

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Wisconsin... Rock River At Fort Atkinson Affecting Jefferson County Rock River Near Lake Koshkonong Affecting Jefferson And Rock Counties Rock River At Newville Affecting Rock County ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 3:40pmExpires: October 26, 2018 at 1:00amTarget Area: Green Lake

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Wisconsin... Rock River At Fort Atkinson Affecting Jefferson County Rock River Near Lake Koshkonong Affecting Jefferson And Rock Counties Rock River At Newville Affecting Rock County ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2018 at 3:40pmExpires: October 27, 2018 at 4:00amTarget Area: Jefferson; Rock

Monday, October 22, 2018

Big Drop in CSU’s Atlantic Hurricane Outlook; Quiet Atlantic, Active Pacific

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Above: Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) analyzed at 2 am EDT Tuesday, July 3, 2018, across the North Atlantic, as compared to the 1981-2010 average SST for this time of year, in degrees C (see scale at right). SSTs across most of the tropical Atlantic between the Antilles and Africa were running cooler than average, while the subtropical Atlantic SSTs were generally warmer than average. The cooler waters over the deep tropics are expected to play into a less-active-than-usual Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit:  tropicaltidbits.com.

Chiller-than-usual waters in the eastern North Atlantic have prodded the forecast group based at Colorado State University to reduce the amount of tropical cyclone activity they project for 2018 from the values predicted only one month ago. In their July update issued on Monday, CSU’s Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Michael Bell are now calling for a total of 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane for the season, including the named storm we’ve already had (Alberto).  This is a major downgrade from the outlook issued on May 31, which had been calling for 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. The amount of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), which takes into account both intensity and duration of each cyclone, is now projected to be 60 for the Atlantic season— only about two-thirds of its typical value for the period 1981-2010.

“I don’t really see any way that this season ends up active at this point,” said Klotzbach in a Twitter message. “The Atlantic remains colder than normal, and the odds of El Niño look to be increasing too. We’re also already starting to see stronger than normal wind shear in the Caribbean.”

CSU’s early July outlook was introduced in 2016 based on a fairly simple but quite effective statistical technique that relies on just two factors: the May-June sea surface temperature (SST) across the eastern North Atlantic and the June sea level pressure over the eastern tropical Pacific (see Figure 1 below). Together, these two easily assessed ingredients explain about 60% of the season-to-season variation in Atlantic ACE from July onward.

Predictors for CSU's July Atlantic hurricane outlook
Figure 1. The two main factors that feed into CSU’s July hurricane outlook are the the May-June sea surface temperature (SST) across the eastern North Atlantic (in a region bounded by latitudes 10°N and 50°N and longitudes 10°N and 30°W) and the June sea level pressure over the eastern tropical Pacific (in a region bounded by latitudes 15°S and 15°N and longitudes 150°W and 110°W). Image credit: Courtesy Phil Klotzbach, CSU.

The main driver for this year’s tepid July outlook was the cooler-than-average May-June SSTs over the eastern North Atlantic (see image at top). Cooling in this region often goes hand in hand with relatively cool waters in the Main Development Region (MDR) of the tropical Atlantic, and in turn with slower-than-average hurricane seasons. In fact, the waters of the MDR were the coolest for mid-June since at least the mid-1980s, as Klotzbach pointed out in a Capital Weather Gang post on June 18. The cooling happened quickly over the last several months, Klotzbach explained, as high pressure intensified over the Atlantic subtropics, strengthening the trade winds and stimulating upwelling of cooler water.

In contrast, there was little influence on the July outlook from sea level pressures in the eastern tropical Pacific. With neither El Niño nor La Niña in place, these were running near average. However, an El Niño Watch is now in effect, and the odds appear to be rising for at least weak or borderline El Niño conditions by August, which could put a further brake on tropical activity in the Atlantic.

Overall, the CSU outlook is for a hurricane season much more like those in the relatively calm period from the 1970s to the early 1990s as opposed to the more active period that’s prevailed from 1995 onward. “My thoughts are that this season will be quiet in the deep tropics. It’s going to be more the subtropical-type formations that we need to watch for,” said Klotzbach. This is a good time to remember that 1992 was a largely tranquil year—apart from Andrew, which hurtled into the Miami area as a fast-developing Category 5 and caused massive destruction. Andrew didn’t strengthen in a big way until it moved out of the deep tropics and approached the Bahamas. Right now, Atlantic SSTs are running above average north of about 25°N, and more than 1°C (1.8°F) above average over the northern Gulf of Mexico and over large parts of the North Atlantic between about 30°N and 35°N.

In their outlook, Klotzbach and Bell reiterated their usual note of caution: “Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”

Forecast
Figure 2. Predicted tracks of a potential tropical depression or tropical storm from the 0Z Tuesday European model ensemble forecast (left) and 0Z Tuesday GFS ensemble forecast (right). The tracks from the operational version of the models is shown in red (presumably the best forecast). About 20% of the ensemble members of the European model and over 50% of the members of the GFS model predicted that a tropical depression would form late this week. The purple dots show where the predicted storm is at tropical depression strength, and the blue dots, tropical storm strength. None of the ensemble members predicted that a hurricane-strength storm (light blue dots) would form. Image credit: cfanclimate.com.

Tropical depression could develop southwest of Bermuda late this week

An area of surface low pressure is expected to form in the waters between Florida and Bermuda late this week, beneath an upper-air trough of low pressure. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in this region are near 28°C (82°F), about 1°C (1.8°F) above average—plenty warm enough to allow the non-tropical low-pressure system to gradually transition into a warm-cored tropical cyclone. The 0Z Tuesday operational runs of our top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis–the European, GFS and UKMET models—all showed some weak development of this system by Friday or Saturday, in the waters a few hundred miles southwest of Bermuda. About 20% of the 50 members of the European model ensemble and over 50% of the 20 members of the GFS model ensemble also supported this idea. The solutions predicted a northwesterly to northerly track for the storm, keeping it well away from the U.S. East Coast.

Only a few of the ensemble members of the 0Z Tuesday European and GFS models predicted that this system would intensify beyond tropical depression strength. The system has until Sunday to get its act together, before a cold front overtakes it and makes development unlikely. This storm does not look to be a threat to any land areas. In their 2 pm EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center gave 2-day and 5-day odds of development to this system of 10% and 30%, respectively.

Satellite
Figure 3. GOES-16 satellite image at 11:15 am EDT July 3, 2018, of a tropical wave located about 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

Tropical wave off the coast of Africa bears watching

A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic, located about 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands early Tuesday afternoon, bears watching as it heads west to west-northwest at about 15 mph this week. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in this region were near 27°C (81°F) and wind shear was a moderate 10 – 20 knots, conditions favorable for development. There is a large area of very dry air, associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), just to the north of the wave, and this dry air will retard development. Satellite images early Tuesday afternoon showed that this disturbance had a moderate amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity.

The 12Z Tuesday GFS model showed some weak development of this system by Thursday, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. About 40% of the 50 members of the 0Z Tuesday European model ensemble and 40% of the 20 members of the 0Z Tuesday GFS model ensemble also supported this idea. As the system approaches the Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday, wind shear and dry air are expected to increase, and all of the forecasts have the storm dying out before reaching the islands on Sunday. In their 2 pm EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center did not give odds that this wave would develop, but we give it 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 10%, respectively.

Precipitation forecast
Figure 4. Predicted precipitation for the 5-day period ending at 8 pm EDT Saturday, July 8, 2018. A Gulf of Mexico disturbance is predicted to bring rainfall amounts 2 – 5 inches to much of the Central Gulf Coast. Image credit: National Weather Service.

Tropical disturbance bringing heavy rains to Central Gulf Coast

A tropical disturbance near the coast of Louisiana is bringing heavy rains to the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Southeast Texas. The center of the disturbance is over land, so the system is not a threat to develop. The disturbance is moving slowly to the west, and radar-estimated precipitation amounts of 2 – 4” had already fallen over the much of the coast as of Tuesday afternoon. A flash flood warning was issued for portions of the New Orleans metro area on Tuesday morning, after 3 – 5” of rain fell in just a few hours. Power was knocked out to 13,000 customers, according to the Associated Press.

Infrared image of Hurricane Fabio at 1645Z (9:45 am PDT) Tuesday, July 3, 2018
Figure 5. Infrared image of Hurricane Fabio at 1645Z (9:45 am PDT) Tuesday, July 3, 2018. Image credit: NASA/MSFC Earth Science Branch.

Fabio puts on a show in the East Pacific; dangerous surf expected in SoCal

Well away from any land areas, Hurricane Fabio vaulted to Category 2 strength on Tuesday, after becoming the earliest “F” storm in any East Pacific season on record early on Sunday, July 1 (beating out Fausto of July 3, 1984, and Fefa of July 3, 1985). Centered about 650 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, at 8 am PDT Tuesday, Fabio was moving west-northwest with top sustained winds of 105 mph.

Fabio will continue tracking parallel to the Mexican coast until it weakens, so it poses no direct threat to land. However, its large circulation will push swells and high surf toward the south-facing beaches of Southern California later this week. Waves could easily top 10 feet, along with deadly rip currents, and some minor coastal flooding is possible. It’s not unusual for major East Pacific storms to bring high surf to the region. In this case, the hazards could affect an especially large number of beachgoers, given that it’s a holiday week and that a major heat wave over the next few days has the potential to push 100°F+ desert air all the way to some coastal locations.

Wind shear is predicted to remain quite low over Fabio—less than 10 knots—through at least Thursday. However, the hurricane is rapidly moving toward cooler waters. Sea surface temperatures along Fabio’s projected path drop below the benchmark 26°C for tropical development on Wednesday, and they tumble to near 20-22°C (68-70°F) by Thursday. Together with a gradually drying mid-level environment, these cool waters will spell the death knell for Fabio’s brief run at glory, although NHC was predicting on Tuesday morning that Fabio would briefly peak at Category 3 strength by late Tuesday.

Here’s wishing a happy Fourth of July to our U.S. readers!

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