Pine Belt Weather

hattiesburg bobby l chain municipal airport weather forecast

Today and tonight: Mid and high cloudiness now encompasses the entire area, and progressively lower ceilings are now encroaching on the Delta along with a spattering of light showers.
A complex of showers and embedded thunderstorms is currently organizing over east Texas as a leading shortwave approaches the region. This wave precedes an upper low, clearly apparent in current WV imagery over eastern NM, which will close off over Texas later today. The initial round of convection will arrive in our area a bit more slowly than guidance was previously indicated, likely moving across the MS River around midday and into the MS side of the Delta, Jackson metro, Pine Belt, and points east during the afternoon.
Surface instability with this first round will be virtually nonexistent, but some elevated instability is expected to survive into western and central portions of the area, so isolated thunder isn`t out of the question. There will be a lull behind this initial band of precipitation, followed by additional development to our west during the early evening as the attendant cold front begins to push into western LA. With cooling temps aloft associated with the upper low and continued strong upper-level forcing and deep layer shear, some of those storms could become robust around the ArkLaTex region. As the front continues eastward overnight, showers and isolated thunderstorms will spread eastward into Mississippi. However, they should quickly lose steam through the night.
The later arrival of the first wave of precip – during the middle of typical daytime peak heating – will help the limit recovery of low-level instability ahead of the front. There will certainly be elevated instability so thunder is anticipated, but the threat for severe weather seems quite low. As for the potential for severe storms impinging on the Pine Belt later this evening, models have continued to trend toward a greater likelihood of coastal/offshore convection limiting the northward extent of robust convection inland, thus that limited severe weather threat is also looking quite minimal.
There is still a non-zero chance of a gusty storm in the aforementioned areas, but the threat now appears too low to continue mentioning. Otherwise, QPF continues to trend downward with this system over the next 24 hours, so the potential for isolated flooding is also dwindling. Gusty gradient winds remain possible today, with some gusts over 30 mph possible in a few spots. Right now we don`t expect that to be widespread or long-lasting enough to include in the HWO, but we`ll continue to monitor non-thunderstorm wind potential through the day.

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Pine Belt Weather