Severe Thunderstorm Warning United StatesNational Weather Alerts

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
The National Weather Service In North Platte Has Issued A * Severe Thunderstorm Warning For... Southeastern Loup County In North Central Nebraska... * Until 915 Pm Cdt * At 848 Pm Cdt, A Severe Thunderstorm Was Located Near Taylor, Moving Southeast At 10 Mph. ...Read More.
Effective: August 19, 2017 at 8:48pmExpires: August 19, 2017 at 9:15pmTarget Area: Loup

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
The National Weather Service In North Platte Has Issued A * Severe Thunderstorm Warning For... Northeastern Custer County In Central Nebraska... * Until 945 Pm Cdt * At 843 Pm Cdt, A Severe Thunderstorm Was Located 9 Miles Southwest Of Taylor, Moving South At 25 Mph. ...Read More.
Effective: August 19, 2017 at 8:44pmExpires: August 19, 2017 at 9:45pmTarget Area: Custer

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
...a Severe Thunderstorm Warning Remains In Effect Until 1000 Pm Edt For Northwestern Montgomery...southeastern Lehigh...northwestern Bucks...southern Monroe And Northampton Counties... At 933 Pm Edt, Severe Thunderstorms Were Located Along A Line Extending From Sun Valley To Near Nazareth To Lehigh University To East Greenville, Moving Northeast At 40 Mph. ...Read More.
Effective: August 19, 2017 at 9:34pmExpires: August 19, 2017 at 10:00pmTarget Area: Bucks; Lehigh; Monroe; Montgomery; Northampton

Flash Flood Warning
The National Weather Service In Springfield Has Issued A * Flash Flood Warning For... Southeastern Crawford County In Southeastern Kansas... Southwestern Barton County In Southwestern Missouri... * Until 100 Am Cdt Sunday * At 657 Pm Cdt, Doppler Radar Indicated Thunderstorms Producing ...Read More.
Effective: August 19, 2017 at 6:59pmExpires: August 20, 2017 at 1:00amTarget Area: Crawford

Flash Flood Warning
The National Weather Service In Springfield Has Issued A * Flash Flood Warning For... Southeastern Crawford County In Southeastern Kansas... Southwestern Barton County In Southwestern Missouri... * Until 100 Am Cdt Sunday * At 657 Pm Cdt, Doppler Radar Indicated Thunderstorms Producing ...Read More.
Effective: August 19, 2017 at 6:59pmExpires: August 20, 2017 at 1:00amTarget Area: Barton

Flash Flood Warning
The National Weather Service In North Platte Has Issued A * Flash Flood Warning For... Southeastern Rock County In North Central Nebraska... Northern Loup County In North Central Nebraska... East Central Blaine County In North Central Nebraska... * Until 200 Am Cdt Sunday ...Read More.
Effective: August 19, 2017 at 7:54pmExpires: August 20, 2017 at 2:00amTarget Area: Blaine; Loup; Rock

Flood Warning
...from The National Weather Service In Little Rock...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following River In Arkansas... Cache River Near Patterson Affecting Jackson And Woodruff Counties River Forecasts Are Based On Current Conditions And Rainfall Forecasted To Occur Over The Next 24 Hours. During Periods Of Flooding...evening Forecasts Are Reissued With Updated Rainfall ...Read More.
Effective: August 19, 2017 at 8:39pmExpires: August 25, 2017 at 7:00pmTarget Area: Jackson; Woodruff

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Extended Until Tuesday Afternoon...the Flood Warning Continues For The Bayou Dorcheat Near Springhill. * Until Tuesday Afternoon...or Until The Warning Is Cancelled. * At 9:00 Am Saturday The Stage Was 11.1 Feet. * Minor Flooding Is Occurring And Minor Flooding Is Forecast. ...Read More.
Effective: August 19, 2017 at 9:45amExpires: August 22, 2017 at 1:00pmTarget Area: Columbia

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Extended Until Tuesday Afternoon...the Flood Warning Continues For The Bayou Dorcheat Near Springhill. * Until Tuesday Afternoon...or Until The Warning Is Cancelled. * At 9:00 Am Saturday The Stage Was 11.1 Feet. * Minor Flooding Is Occurring And Minor Flooding Is Forecast. ...Read More.
Effective: August 19, 2017 at 9:45amExpires: August 22, 2017 at 1:00pmTarget Area: Webster

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Areas In Texas... South Sulphur River Near Cooper Affecting Delta And Hopkins Counties The Flood Warning Continues For The South Sulphur River Near Cooper. * At 0715 Pm Saturday The Stage Was 18.92 Feet. ...Read More.
Effective: August 19, 2017 at 8:15pmExpires: August 20, 2017 at 8:15amTarget Area: Delta; Hopkins

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Extended Until Monday Afternoon...the Flood Warning Continues For The White Oak Creek Near Talco. * Until Monday Afternoon...or Until The Warning Is Cancelled. * At 9:15 Am Saturday The Stage Was 16.8 Feet. * Minor Flooding Is Occurring And Minor Flooding Is Forecast. ...Read More.
Effective: August 19, 2017 at 9:44amExpires: August 21, 2017 at 1:00pmTarget Area: Franklin; Morris; Titus

Flood Warning
The Flood Warning Continues For The Sulphur River Below Talco. * Until Further Notice...or Until The Warning Is Cancelled. * At 8:45 Am Saturday The Stage Was 23.0 Feet. * Minor Flooding Is Occurring And Minor Flooding Is Forecast. * Flood Stage Is 20.0 Feet. ...Read More.
Effective: August 19, 2017 at 9:42amExpires: August 20, 2017 at 9:42amTarget Area: Franklin; Morris; Red River; Titus

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Extended Until Sunday Afternoon...the Flood Warning Continues For The Sabine River Near Mineola. * Until Sunday Afternoon...or Until The Warning Is Cancelled. * At 7:15 Am Saturday The Stage Was 15.6 Feet. * Minor Flooding Is Occurring And Minor Flooding Is Forecast. ...Read More.
Effective: August 19, 2017 at 8:04amExpires: August 20, 2017 at 5:00pmTarget Area: Smith; Wood

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Jun 11

Window of development opportunity coming up?

It’s still early June and typically this time of the hurricane season means that things are usually quiet. Every once in a while we will get a June tropical storm or hurricane, but it’s not the norm. As most of you know, the season really begins to ramp up from about mid-August on. Usually….

This season might not be usual.

I am seeing the beginnings of signs that may point to a development window opening over the next week to ten days and beyond.

 

GFS and its ensemble members indicating a more favorable MJO state coming up for portions of the Western Hemisphere over the next couple of weeks

For starters, the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO is forecast by the GFS and Euro models to be moving in to the phase that often supports development somewhere within the Atlantic Basin. The MJO phenomenon is easy to think of as a period of fertility in the tropics, when deep convection can form and blossom, not just fizzle out and dissipate. While the MJO helps to enhance development it does not necessarily mean that development is a certainty.

The upcoming signal from the MJO is not especially strong but it is there (forecast to be there anyway) and could lead to better upper level winds over parts of the southeast Pacific and extending in to the western Caribbean and western Gulf. With water temps plenty warm in the region, all we need is a kick and it could lead to development in one basin or the other, maybe both. We will have to just wait and see.

If we look at the GFS operational model at the 850 millibar level which is about 5k feet up, we can see one week out from today that a wind shift or monsoonal trough begins to set up from the southeast Pacific, across Central America and in to the western Caribbean. This would act like a focusing mechanism for the air to come together or converge, probably leading to enhanced convection (thunderstorms) across the region.

This large counter-clockwise “gyre” is so spread out that in and of itself it wouldn’t develop. We would need to see if an area of concentrated energy or vorticity breaks off and tries to develop out of this larger area of energy. If so, then a low pressure area could get going either in the Pacific or the western Caribbean – leading to the chance of a tropical depression or storm at some point.

As you can tell, the process is long and complex. I am not going to dwell on it day after day for two weeks but it is something to keep an eye on. At the very least, more rainfall than normal may be setting up for portions of Central America and it may lead to a named storm on one side of Central America or the other. Time will tell.

GFS model at 168 hrs showing (yellow area) a wind shift and overall troughof low pressure stretched out over a large area, we call this a “monsoon trough” and it can lead to development if conditions allow

Then there is this interesting set up taking shape: The ECMWF (Euro) is indicating the possibility of an easterly wave (tropical wave) trying to develop way out in the deep tropics between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Remember, water temps out this way are running above the long term average. If we do in fact see a strong area of energy emerge from Africa, it could take advantage of the warmer water and more favorable conditions overall  and try to develop some. This would be highly unusual and a significant sign in my opinion that this season could be quite busy. Again, time will tell.

We live in an age when computer guidance and satellite information allows us to see in to the future of weather forecasting better than ever before. These early warning signs are helpful since we should no longer be totally caught off guard. It may not prevent a “Labor Day hurricane of 1935” scenario in which case we saw a TS become a Cat-5 hurricane in a very short amount of time but the advances in technology now allows us to be more aware than ever that a threat from the tropics is looming (or could be looming). My point is, do not be alarmed or worried. There’s no reason for that. Instead, be aware. We were told the season could be busier than average and these are possible signs of that happening. So just take note and pay attention a little more than normal perhaps. Applaud the fact that we have such tools at our disposal and as long as we know how to interpret them, it can be a good thing. After all, with such much at stake along our coastlines (all of us, not just the USA), the more lead-time the better; at least I think so anyway.

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