Pine Belt Weather Alerts
Flood Warning United StatesNational Weather Alerts

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Has Been Extended For The Following Rivers In Connecticut... Connecticut River At Middle Haddam Affecting Middlesex County An Ice Jam Continues To Keep The Connecticut River At Middle Haddam Above Flood Stage. The River Level Is Expected To Slowly Recede. The Flood Warning Continues For ...Read More.
Effective: January 17, 2018 at 11:21amExpires: January 18, 2018 at 9:00amTarget Area: Middlesex

Flood Warning
The National Weather Service In Albany Has Extended The * Flood Warning For... Southwestern Litchfield County In Northern Connecticut... * Until 130 Pm Est Thursday * At 749 Am Est, Local Law Enforcement Reported Flooding Continuing Along The Housatonic River At Kent Due To An Ice Jam. Waters Have ...Read More.
Effective: January 16, 2018 at 7:51amExpires: January 18, 2018 at 1:30pmTarget Area: Litchfield

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Maine Kennebec River At Augusta Affecting Kennebec County The Flood Warning Continues For The Kennebec River At Augusta. * Until This Evening. * At 1 Am Thursday The Stage Was 11.7 Feet. ...Read More.
Effective: January 18, 2018 at 1:54amExpires: January 18, 2018 at 6:25pmTarget Area: Kennebec

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Michigan...wisconsin... Menominee River Near Pembine Affecting Menominee And Marinette Counties The Flood Warning Continues For The Menominee River Near Pembine. ...Read More.
Effective: January 17, 2018 at 8:59pmExpires: January 18, 2018 at 11:59amTarget Area: Menominee

Flood Warning
The National Weather Service In Albany Has Extended The * Flood Warning For... Central Warren County In East Central New York... * Until 1000 Am Est Friday * At 824 Am Est, Emergency Management Continues To Report Flooding Along Route 418 Between Thurman And Warrensburg, Along River Road ...Read More.
Effective: January 17, 2018 at 8:26amExpires: January 19, 2018 at 10:00amTarget Area: Warren

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Michigan...wisconsin... Menominee River Near Pembine Affecting Menominee And Marinette Counties The Flood Warning Continues For The Menominee River Near Pembine. ...Read More.
Effective: January 17, 2018 at 7:59pmExpires: January 18, 2018 at 10:59amTarget Area: Marinette

Winter Storm Warning
...winter Storm Warning In Effect From 4 Pm Thursday To 4 Pm Pst Friday... * What...heavy Snow Expected With Strong Damaging Winds Possible. Plan On Difficult Travel Conditions In Near White Out Conditions At Times. Damage To Trees And Power Lines Will Be Possible As Well. Total Snow Accumulations Of 4 To 7 Inches With Localized ...Read More.
Effective: January 17, 2018 at 2:32pmExpires: January 19, 2018 at 4:00pmTarget Area: Greater Lake Tahoe Area

Winter Storm Warning
...heavy Snow Possible Over The Mountains Thursday Through Friday... .a Cold Pacific Storm System Is Forecast To Move Through The Interior Of Northern California On Thursday And Thursday Night, With Snow Showers Continuing Through The Day On Friday. Snow Levels Will Lower Rapidly With This Storm, Dropping To Around ...Read More.
Effective: January 17, 2018 at 2:11pmExpires: January 19, 2018 at 4:00pmTarget Area: West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada; Western Plumas County, Lassen Park

Winter Storm Warning
...winter Storm Warning Remains In Effect Until 7 Am Est This Morning... * What...snow Will Taper Off Across Northeast North Carolina Through 7 Am. Plan On Difficult Travel Conditions, Including During The Morning Commute. Total Snow Accumulation Of 3 To 6 Inches Are Expected. Highest Near The Albemarle Sound And ...Read More.
Effective: January 18, 2018 at 3:56amExpires: January 18, 2018 at 7:00amTarget Area: Camden; Chowan; Eastern Currituck; Pasquotank; Perquimans; Western Currituck

Winter Storm Warning
...light Snow Will Continue Over Eastern North Carolina Through The Early Morning Hours... .low Pressure Off The Coast Will Quickly Move Off To The Northeast This Morning. As A Result, Light Snow Will Taper Off And End From Southwest To Northeast. ...winter Storm Warning Remains In Effect Until 6 Am Est Early ...Read More.
Effective: January 18, 2018 at 3:49amExpires: January 18, 2018 at 6:00amTarget Area: Beaufort; Carteret; Craven; Mainland Dare; Mainland Hyde; Outer Banks Dare; Outer Banks Hyde; Pamlico; Tyrrell; Washington

Winter Storm Warning
...winter Storm Warning In Effect From 4 Pm Thursday To 4 Pm Pst Friday... * What...heavy Snow Expected With Strong Damaging Winds Possible. Plan On Difficult Travel Conditions In Near White Out Conditions At Times. Damage To Trees And Power Lines Will Be Possible As Well. Total Snow Accumulations Of 4 To 7 Inches With Localized ...Read More.
Effective: January 17, 2018 at 2:32pmExpires: January 19, 2018 at 4:00pmTarget Area: Greater Lake Tahoe Area

Freeze Warning
...freeze Warning Remains In Effect Until 9 Am This Morning... ...freeze Watch Issued For Late Tonight Through Friday Morning... The National Weather Service In Melbourne Has Issued A Freeze Watch, Which Is In Effect From Late Tonight Through Friday Morning. * Temperature...overnight Low Temperatures Have Already Dropped ...Read More.
Effective: January 18, 2018 at 3:57amExpires: January 18, 2018 at 9:00amTarget Area: Coastal Volusia County; Inland Volusia County; Northern Lake County; Southern Lake County

Freeze Warning
...freeze Warning Remains In Effect Until 9 Am Est This Morning... * Temperature...overnight Low Temperatures Have Already Dropped Into The Lower To Middle 30 Across The Warning Area, With Some Readings Around 30 Degrees In Rural Sheltered Spots North Of Interstate 4. Lows Will Reach The Lower 30s Across The Warning Area, With A Few Upper 20s Possible In Sheltered Spots. A Freeze ...Read More.
Effective: January 18, 2018 at 3:57amExpires: January 18, 2018 at 9:00amTarget Area: Orange; Osceola; Seminole

Freeze Warning
...freezing Temperatures This Morning And Again Late Tonight Through Friday Morning... .cold Air Continues To Surge Into The Region This Morning, With Several Locations Already Observing Freezing Temperatures. These Will Spread Southward Across The Warning Area Through Sunrise. Steady Northerly Winds Will Also Combine With The Cold Temperatures To ...Read More.
Effective: January 18, 2018 at 2:57amExpires: January 18, 2018 at 9:00amTarget Area: Coastal Charlotte; Coastal Hillsborough; Coastal Manatee; Coastal Sarasota; DeSoto; Hardee; Highlands; Inland Charlotte; Inland Lee; Inland Manatee; Inland Sarasota; Pinellas

Freeze Warning
...freezing Temperatures This Morning And Again Late Tonight Through Friday Morning... .cold Air Continues To Surge Into The Region This Morning, With Several Locations Already Observing Freezing Temperatures. These Will Spread Southward Across The Warning Area Through Sunrise. Steady Northerly Winds Will Also Combine With The Cold Temperatures To ...Read More.
Effective: January 18, 2018 at 2:57amExpires: January 18, 2018 at 9:00amTarget Area: Coastal Pasco; Inland Hillsborough; Polk

Freeze Warning
...freezing Temperatures This Morning And Again Late Tonight Through Friday Morning... .cold Air Continues To Surge Into The Region This Morning, With Several Locations Already Observing Freezing Temperatures. These Will Spread Southward Across The Warning Area Through Sunrise. Steady Northerly Winds Will Also Combine With The Cold Temperatures To ...Read More.
Effective: January 18, 2018 at 2:57amExpires: January 18, 2018 at 9:00amTarget Area: Coastal Hernando

Freeze Warning
...freeze Warning Remains In Effect Until 8 Am Est This Morning... * Temperature...freezing Temperatures Are Expected Early This Morning Over Portions Of Glades And Hendry Counties. * Impacts...freezing Temperatures Will Be A Danger For Pets, Livestock, And Sensitive Vegetation. ...Read More.
Effective: January 18, 2018 at 2:55amExpires: January 18, 2018 at 8:00amTarget Area: Glades; Hendry

Freeze Warning
...one More Bitterly Cold Night ... .with An Arctic Airmass Firmly In Place Across The Region, One Final Cold Night Is In Store For The Area With Lows Mainly In The 20s. ...hard Freeze Warning Remains In Effect Until 11 Am Cst This Morning... ...Read More.
Effective: January 18, 2018 at 3:36amExpires: January 19, 2018 at 10:00amTarget Area: Assumption; Orleans; St. Charles; St. James; St. John The Baptist; Upper Jefferson; Upper Lafourche; Upper Plaquemines; Upper St. Bernard; Upper Terrebonne

Freeze Warning
...freezing Temperatures This Morning Over South Texas... .freezing Temperatures Expected This Morning Across South Texas. Temperatures Will Remain Below Freezing Through The Mid Morning, Before Gradually Warming Throughout The Day. ...freeze Warning Remains In Effect Until 10 Am Cst This Morning... ...Read More.
Effective: January 18, 2018 at 3:18amExpires: January 18, 2018 at 10:00amTarget Area: Aransas; Bee; Calhoun; Duval; Goliad; Jim Wells; Kleberg; La Salle; Live Oak; McMullen; Nueces; Refugio; San Patricio; Victoria; Webb

Freeze Warning
...freezing Temperatures Across Deep South Texas Tonight... .temperatures Tonight Are Expected To Drop Below Freezing Again Across Most Of Deep South Texas As A Very Cold Air Mass Remains In Place. With Light Winds Overnight, A Few Locations May Drop Into The Mid 20s In The Northern Ranchlands. By Mid-morning Temperatures Will Rise Above Freezing With Highs Only Reaching The ...Read More.
Effective: January 17, 2018 at 4:25pmExpires: January 18, 2018 at 9:00amTarget Area: Brooks; Hidalgo; Inland Willacy; Jim Hogg; Kenedy; Starr; Zapata

High Wind Warning
...high Wind Warning Remains In Effect Until 4 Am Pst Thursday... ...wind Advisory Remains In Effect Until 4 Am Pst Thursday... * Winds...south To Southeast 30 To 40 Mph With Gusts Up To 60 Mph. * Timing...strong Winds Will Continue Through Late Tonight. The Strongest Winds Will Occur During Early This Evening. ...Read More.
Effective: January 17, 2018 at 9:51pmExpires: January 18, 2018 at 4:00amTarget Area: Central Siskiyou County

High Wind Warning
...high Wind Warning Remains In Effect From 4 Pm Thursday To 4 Am Pst Friday... * Timing: Winds Will Begin Increasing By Mid To Late Thursday Morning Ahead Of A Strong Cold Front. Winds Are Expected To Peak Thursday Evening Or Very Early Friday Morning Before Decreasing Behind The Front. ...Read More.
Effective: January 17, 2018 at 3:16pmExpires: January 19, 2018 at 4:00amTarget Area: Mono

High Wind Warning
...high Wind Warning Remains In Effect From 10 Am To 10 Pm Pst Thursday... * Timing: South To Southwest Winds Will Begin Increasing Early Thursday Morning Ahead Of A Strong Cold Front. Winds Will Peak Thursday Afternoon And Early Evening Before Decreasing Behind The Front. ...Read More.
Effective: January 17, 2018 at 3:16pmExpires: January 18, 2018 at 10:00pmTarget Area: Greater Reno-Carson City-Minden Area

High Wind Warning
...high Wind Warning Remains In Effect Until 4 Am Pst Thursday... ...wind Advisory Remains In Effect Until 7 Am Pst Thursday... * Winds...south 35 To 45 Mph With Gusts To 60 Mph Possible. * Timing...south Winds Will Continue Through Early Thursday Morning, Reaching A Peak After Midnight Tonight. * Locations Include...highway 395 From Lakeview North To The ...Read More.
Effective: January 17, 2018 at 9:51pmExpires: January 18, 2018 at 4:00amTarget Area: Central and Eastern Lake County; Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County

High Wind Warning
...strong Winds Expected Late Tonight And Friday Morning For The Southeast Wyoming Wind Prone Areas... .strengthening Surface And Low Level Pressure Gradients Will Cause Winds To Become Strong Late Tonight And Friday Morning. ...high Wind Warning In Effect From Midnight Tonight Through Friday Morning... ...Read More.
Effective: January 18, 2018 at 1:46amExpires: January 19, 2018 at 12:00pmTarget Area: North Snowy Range Foothills

High Wind Warning
...strong Winds Between Cody And Clark This Morning... .strong Downslope Winds Will Occasionally Push Down The Mountains Into The Cody Foothills Through This Morning. ...high Wind Warning Remains In Effect Until Noon Mst Today... * Timing...through This Morning. Winds Are Expected To Diminish Below 7500 Feet This Afternoon. ...Read More.
Effective: January 18, 2018 at 12:56amExpires: January 18, 2018 at 12:00pmTarget Area: Cody Foothills

Jun 11

Window of development opportunity coming up?

It’s still early June and typically this time of the hurricane season means that things are usually quiet. Every once in a while we will get a June tropical storm or hurricane, but it’s not the norm. As most of you know, the season really begins to ramp up from about mid-August on. Usually….

This season might not be usual.

I am seeing the beginnings of signs that may point to a development window opening over the next week to ten days and beyond.

 

GFS and its ensemble members indicating a more favorable MJO state coming up for portions of the Western Hemisphere over the next couple of weeks

For starters, the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO is forecast by the GFS and Euro models to be moving in to the phase that often supports development somewhere within the Atlantic Basin. The MJO phenomenon is easy to think of as a period of fertility in the tropics, when deep convection can form and blossom, not just fizzle out and dissipate. While the MJO helps to enhance development it does not necessarily mean that development is a certainty.

The upcoming signal from the MJO is not especially strong but it is there (forecast to be there anyway) and could lead to better upper level winds over parts of the southeast Pacific and extending in to the western Caribbean and western Gulf. With water temps plenty warm in the region, all we need is a kick and it could lead to development in one basin or the other, maybe both. We will have to just wait and see.

If we look at the GFS operational model at the 850 millibar level which is about 5k feet up, we can see one week out from today that a wind shift or monsoonal trough begins to set up from the southeast Pacific, across Central America and in to the western Caribbean. This would act like a focusing mechanism for the air to come together or converge, probably leading to enhanced convection (thunderstorms) across the region.

This large counter-clockwise “gyre” is so spread out that in and of itself it wouldn’t develop. We would need to see if an area of concentrated energy or vorticity breaks off and tries to develop out of this larger area of energy. If so, then a low pressure area could get going either in the Pacific or the western Caribbean – leading to the chance of a tropical depression or storm at some point.

As you can tell, the process is long and complex. I am not going to dwell on it day after day for two weeks but it is something to keep an eye on. At the very least, more rainfall than normal may be setting up for portions of Central America and it may lead to a named storm on one side of Central America or the other. Time will tell.

GFS model at 168 hrs showing (yellow area) a wind shift and overall troughof low pressure stretched out over a large area, we call this a “monsoon trough” and it can lead to development if conditions allow

Then there is this interesting set up taking shape: The ECMWF (Euro) is indicating the possibility of an easterly wave (tropical wave) trying to develop way out in the deep tropics between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Remember, water temps out this way are running above the long term average. If we do in fact see a strong area of energy emerge from Africa, it could take advantage of the warmer water and more favorable conditions overall  and try to develop some. This would be highly unusual and a significant sign in my opinion that this season could be quite busy. Again, time will tell.

We live in an age when computer guidance and satellite information allows us to see in to the future of weather forecasting better than ever before. These early warning signs are helpful since we should no longer be totally caught off guard. It may not prevent a “Labor Day hurricane of 1935” scenario in which case we saw a TS become a Cat-5 hurricane in a very short amount of time but the advances in technology now allows us to be more aware than ever that a threat from the tropics is looming (or could be looming). My point is, do not be alarmed or worried. There’s no reason for that. Instead, be aware. We were told the season could be busier than average and these are possible signs of that happening. So just take note and pay attention a little more than normal perhaps. Applaud the fact that we have such tools at our disposal and as long as we know how to interpret them, it can be a good thing. After all, with such much at stake along our coastlines (all of us, not just the USA), the more lead-time the better; at least I think so anyway.

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