Pine Belt Weather Alerts
Flash Flood Warning United StatesNational Weather Alerts

Flash Flood Warning
The National Weather Service In San Juan Has Extended The * Flash Flood Warning For... A Dam Failure In... Northeastern Isabela Municipality In Puerto Rico... Central Quebradillas Municipality In Puerto Rico... * Until 1000 Am Ast Monday ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2017 at 10:44amExpires: October 23, 2017 at 11:00amTarget Area: Isabela; Quebradillas

Flood Warning
...a Flood Warning Remains In Effect Until 1030 Am Cdt For Baldwin And Northwestern Escambia Counties... At 800 Am Cdt, Rain Gauge Observations Indicated That Widespread Rainfall Amounts Of 3 To 6 Inches Of Rainfall Fell Over A Large Portion Of Baldwin County And Northwest Escambia County Florida Last Night, With Isolated Amounts Over 8 Inches. While Rain Has Ended, ...Read More.
Effective: October 23, 2017 at 8:03amExpires: October 23, 2017 at 10:30amTarget Area: Baldwin

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Alabama...florida... Perdido River Near Barrineau Park Affecting Baldwin And Escambia Counties. .recent Heavy Rains Have Caused Significant Rises Along The River. ...flood Warning Extended Until Tuesday Afternoon... The Flood Warning Continues For The Perdido River Near Barrineau Park * From Early This Morning Until Tuesday Afternoon. ...Read More.
Effective: October 23, 2017 at 6:45amExpires: October 24, 2017 at 3:43pmTarget Area: Baldwin

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Alabama... Styx River Near Elsanor Affecting Baldwin County. .recent Heavy Rains Have Caused Significant Rises Along The River. ...flood Warning Extended Until Tuesday Afternoon...the Flood Warning Continues For The Styx River Near Elsanor ...Read More.
Effective: October 23, 2017 at 6:20amExpires: October 24, 2017 at 12:45pmTarget Area: Baldwin

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Alabama... Fish River Near Silverhill Affecting Baldwin County. .recent Heavy Rains Have Caused Significant Rises Along The River. ...flood Warning Extended Until Late Tonight...the Flood Warning Continues For The Fish River Near Silverhill * Until Late Tonight. ...Read More.
Effective: October 23, 2017 at 6:12amExpires: October 24, 2017 at 2:30amTarget Area: Baldwin

Flood Warning
...a Flood Warning Remains In Effect Until 1030 Am Cdt For Baldwin And Northwestern Escambia Counties... At 800 Am Cdt, Rain Gauge Observations Indicated That Widespread Rainfall Amounts Of 3 To 6 Inches Of Rainfall Fell Over A Large Portion Of Baldwin County And Northwest Escambia County Florida Last Night, With Isolated Amounts Over 8 Inches. While Rain Has Ended, ...Read More.
Effective: October 23, 2017 at 9:03amExpires: October 24, 2017 at 4:43pmTarget Area: Escambia

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Florida... Shoal River Near Crestview Affecting Okaloosa County. .recent Heavy Rains Have Caused Significant Rises Along The River. ...flood Warning Extended Until Wednesday Evening... The Flood Warning Continues For The Shoal River Near Crestview * From Early Tuesday Until Wednesday Evening. ...Read More.
Effective: October 23, 2017 at 7:55amExpires: October 25, 2017 at 11:00pmTarget Area: Okaloosa

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Alabama...florida... Perdido River Near Barrineau Park Affecting Baldwin And Escambia Counties. .recent Heavy Rains Have Caused Significant Rises Along The River. ...flood Warning Extended Until Tuesday Afternoon... The Flood Warning Continues For The Perdido River Near Barrineau Park * From Early This Morning Until Tuesday Afternoon. ...Read More.
Effective: October 23, 2017 at 7:45amExpires: October 24, 2017 at 4:43pmTarget Area: Escambia

Flood Warning
The National Weather Service In Mobile Has Issued A * Flood Warning For... Okaloosa County In Northwestern Florida... * Until 115 Pm Cdt Monday * At 109 Am Cdt, Doppler Radar And Rain Gauge Observations Indicate That 3 To 6 Inches Of Rain Has Fallen Over A Large Portion Of ...Read More.
Effective: October 23, 2017 at 2:14amExpires: October 24, 2017 at 10:37amTarget Area: Okaloosa

Flood Warning
A River Flood Warning Remains In Effect For...the Saint Johns River Near Cocoa, Above Lake Harney Near Geneva, Near Sanford, Near Deland, And At Astor. ...major Flooding Is Ongoing Above Lake Harney Near Geneva... ...moderate Flooding Persists Near Cocoa, Near Deland, And At Astor... ...minor Flooding To Continue Near Sanford... ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2017 at 10:37amExpires: October 24, 2017 at 10:37amTarget Area: Brevard

Flood Warning
A River Flood Warning Remains In Effect For...the Saint Johns River Near Cocoa, Above Lake Harney Near Geneva, Near Sanford, Near Deland, And At Astor. ...major Flooding Is Ongoing Above Lake Harney Near Geneva... ...moderate Flooding Persists Near Cocoa, Near Deland, And At Astor... ...minor Flooding To Continue Near Sanford... ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2017 at 10:37amExpires: October 24, 2017 at 10:37amTarget Area: Lake; Volusia

Flood Warning
A River Flood Warning Remains In Effect For...the Saint Johns River Near Cocoa, Above Lake Harney Near Geneva, Near Sanford, Near Deland, And At Astor. ...major Flooding Is Ongoing Above Lake Harney Near Geneva... ...moderate Flooding Persists Near Cocoa, Near Deland, And At Astor... ...minor Flooding To Continue Near Sanford... ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2017 at 10:37amExpires: October 24, 2017 at 10:37amTarget Area: Lake; Volusia

Flood Warning
A River Flood Warning Remains In Effect For...the Saint Johns River Near Cocoa, Above Lake Harney Near Geneva, Near Sanford, Near Deland, And At Astor. ...major Flooding Is Ongoing Above Lake Harney Near Geneva... ...moderate Flooding Persists Near Cocoa, Near Deland, And At Astor... ...minor Flooding To Continue Near Sanford... ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2017 at 10:37amExpires: October 24, 2017 at 10:37amTarget Area: Seminole

Flood Warning
A River Flood Warning Remains In Effect For...the Saint Johns River Near Cocoa, Above Lake Harney Near Geneva, Near Sanford, Near Deland, And At Astor. ...major Flooding Is Ongoing Above Lake Harney Near Geneva... ...moderate Flooding Persists Near Cocoa, Near Deland, And At Astor... ...minor Flooding To Continue Near Sanford... ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2017 at 10:37amExpires: October 24, 2017 at 10:37amTarget Area: Seminole

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Louisiana... Comite River At Comite Joor Rd Affecting East Baton Rouge Parish ...flood Warning Extended Until Tuesday Morning...the Flood Warning Continues For The Comite River At Comite Joor Rd. ...Read More.
Effective: October 23, 2017 at 6:20amExpires: October 24, 2017 at 7:05amTarget Area: East Baton Rouge

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Louisiana... Tickfaw River At Liverpool Affecting St. Helena Parish ...flood Warning Extended Until This Afternoon...the Flood Warning Continues For The Tickfaw River At Liverpool. ...Read More.
Effective: October 23, 2017 at 6:14amExpires: October 23, 2017 at 1:00pmTarget Area: St. Helena

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Minnesota.. Minnesota River At Montevideo Affecting Chippewa...lac Qui Parle And Yellow Medicine Counties .overview... The Flood Warning Continues For ...Read More.
Effective: October 22, 2017 at 8:24pmExpires: October 27, 2017 at 1:00amTarget Area: Chippewa; Lac qui Parle; Yellow Medicine

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Missouri... Blackwater River Near Blue Lick Affecting Cooper And Saline Counties. The Flood Warning Continues For The Blackwater River Near Blue Lick. ...Read More.
Effective: October 23, 2017 at 4:47amExpires: October 25, 2017 at 2:17amTarget Area: Cooper; Saline

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Missouri... Marmaton River Near Nevada Affecting Vernon County ...for The Marmaton River Near Nevada... * At 3:45 Am Monday The Stage Was 20.1 Feet. * Flood Stage Is 20.0 Feet. ...Read More.
Effective: October 23, 2017 at 4:25amExpires: October 25, 2017 at 2:05amTarget Area: Vernon

Flood Warning
...the Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In Mississippi... Biloxi River Near Lyman Affecting Harrison County The Flood Warning Continues For The Biloxi River Near Lyman. * Until This Afternoon. ...Read More.
Effective: October 23, 2017 at 6:18amExpires: October 23, 2017 at 5:52pmTarget Area: Harrison

Flood Warning
The Flood Warning Continues For The East Cache Creek Near Walters. * From Early This Morning To Late Tonight...or Until The Warning Is Cancelled. * At 1:30 Am Monday The Stage Was 19.6 Feet. * Moderate Flooding Is Forecast. ...Read More.
Effective: October 23, 2017 at 1:50amExpires: October 24, 2017 at 5:44amTarget Area: Comanche; Cotton

High Wind Warning
...high Wind Warning Remains In Effect From 1 Pm This Afternoon To 10 Pm Akdt This Evening... * Wind...southeast Winds 55 To 65 Mph With Gusts To 75 Mph. * Timing...winds Will Strengthen Through This Afternoon And Peak In Intensity Late This Afternoon. Winds Will The Gradually Weaken Through This Evening. ...Read More.
Effective: October 23, 2017 at 4:47amExpires: October 23, 2017 at 10:00pmTarget Area: Western Aleutians

High Wind Warning
...high Wind Warning Remains In Effect From 7 Pm This Evening To 7 Am Akdt Tuesday... * Wind...southeast Wind 60 To 70 Mph With Gusts To 80 Mph. * Timing...winds Will Strengthen This Evening Before Peaking Late Tonight. Winds Will Then Gradually Weaken Throughout The Early Morning Hours On Tuesday. ...Read More.
Effective: October 23, 2017 at 4:47amExpires: October 24, 2017 at 7:00amTarget Area: Central Aleutians

High Wind Warning
...strong Winds Expected Late Tonight Through Tuesday... ...high Wind Warning In Effect From 7 Am To 5 Pm Edt Tuesday... The National Weather Service In Marquette Has Issued A High Wind Warning, Which Is In Effect From 7 Am To 5 Pm Edt Tuesday. Hazardous Weather: * North Winds Will Increase Early Tuesday Morning, With The ...Read More.
Effective: October 23, 2017 at 4:30amExpires: October 24, 2017 at 5:00pmTarget Area: Baraga

High Wind Warning
...strong Winds Expected Late Tonight Through Tuesday... ...high Wind Warning In Effect From 4 Am To 11 Pm Edt Tuesday... The National Weather Service In Marquette Has Issued A High Wind Warning, Which Is In Effect From 4 Am To 11 Pm Edt Tuesday. Hazardous Weather: * North Winds Will Increase Late Tonight, With The Strongest ...Read More.
Effective: October 23, 2017 at 4:30amExpires: October 24, 2017 at 11:00pmTarget Area: Marquette

High Wind Warning
...strong Winds Expected Late Tonight Through Tuesday... ...high Wind Warning In Effect From 4 Am To 11 Pm Edt Tuesday... The National Weather Service In Marquette Has Issued A High Wind Warning, Which Is In Effect From 4 Am To 11 Pm Edt Tuesday. Hazardous Weather: * North Winds Will Increase Late Tonight, With The Strongest ...Read More.
Effective: October 23, 2017 at 4:30amExpires: October 24, 2017 at 11:00pmTarget Area: Alger

High Wind Warning
...strong Winds Expected Late Tonight Through Tuesday... ...high Wind Warning In Effect From 5 Am To 11 Pm Edt Tuesday... The National Weather Service In Marquette Has Issued A High Wind Warning, Which Is In Effect From 5 Am To 11 Pm Edt Tuesday. Hazardous Weather: * North Winds Will Increase Late Tonight, With The Strongest ...Read More.
Effective: October 23, 2017 at 4:30amExpires: October 24, 2017 at 11:00pmTarget Area: Houghton; Keweenaw

High Wind Warning
...high Wind Warning In Effect Until 6 Pm Mdt This Evening... * Winds...northwest 30 To 45 Mph With Gusts Up To 60 Mph. * Timing...strong Winds Will Continue Today Before Diminishing Around Sunset. * Impacts...sudden Wind Gusts Can Cause Drivers To Lose Control, Especially In Lightweight Or High Profile Vehicles. Strong ...Read More.
Effective: October 23, 2017 at 2:40amExpires: October 23, 2017 at 6:00pmTarget Area: Butte; Haakon; Harding; Northern Meade Co Plains; Pennington Co Plains; Perkins; Southern Meade Co Plains; Ziebach

High Wind Warning
...windy Conditions Expected Through Early Monday Afternoon Across The Mountains And Adjacent Foothills... .a Cold Front Will Move Across The Area Today. Southeast Winds Will Strengthen Late Morning Ahead Of This System Across The Mountains And Foothills Of East Tennessee, And Windy Conditions Will Persist Into The Early Afternoon Hours Before Diminishing. ...Read More.
Effective: October 23, 2017 at 2:45amExpires: October 23, 2017 at 12:00pmTarget Area: Blount Smoky Mountains; Cocke Smoky Mountains; Sevier Smoky Mountains; Southeast Greene; Southeast Monroe

High Wind Warning
...high Wind Through Guadalupe Pass Monday Evening Through Tuesday Morning... .the Next Cold Front Is Expected To Blow Through The Region This Evening Into Tonight. This Will Result In High Wind Conditions Through Guadalupe Pass Beginning This Evening. Conditions Should Quickly Improve Tuesday Afternoon. ...Read More.
Effective: October 23, 2017 at 3:24amExpires: October 24, 2017 at 1:00pmTarget Area: Guadalupe Mountains

Jun 11

Window of development opportunity coming up?

It’s still early June and typically this time of the hurricane season means that things are usually quiet. Every once in a while we will get a June tropical storm or hurricane, but it’s not the norm. As most of you know, the season really begins to ramp up from about mid-August on. Usually….

This season might not be usual.

I am seeing the beginnings of signs that may point to a development window opening over the next week to ten days and beyond.

 

GFS and its ensemble members indicating a more favorable MJO state coming up for portions of the Western Hemisphere over the next couple of weeks

For starters, the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO is forecast by the GFS and Euro models to be moving in to the phase that often supports development somewhere within the Atlantic Basin. The MJO phenomenon is easy to think of as a period of fertility in the tropics, when deep convection can form and blossom, not just fizzle out and dissipate. While the MJO helps to enhance development it does not necessarily mean that development is a certainty.

The upcoming signal from the MJO is not especially strong but it is there (forecast to be there anyway) and could lead to better upper level winds over parts of the southeast Pacific and extending in to the western Caribbean and western Gulf. With water temps plenty warm in the region, all we need is a kick and it could lead to development in one basin or the other, maybe both. We will have to just wait and see.

If we look at the GFS operational model at the 850 millibar level which is about 5k feet up, we can see one week out from today that a wind shift or monsoonal trough begins to set up from the southeast Pacific, across Central America and in to the western Caribbean. This would act like a focusing mechanism for the air to come together or converge, probably leading to enhanced convection (thunderstorms) across the region.

This large counter-clockwise “gyre” is so spread out that in and of itself it wouldn’t develop. We would need to see if an area of concentrated energy or vorticity breaks off and tries to develop out of this larger area of energy. If so, then a low pressure area could get going either in the Pacific or the western Caribbean – leading to the chance of a tropical depression or storm at some point.

As you can tell, the process is long and complex. I am not going to dwell on it day after day for two weeks but it is something to keep an eye on. At the very least, more rainfall than normal may be setting up for portions of Central America and it may lead to a named storm on one side of Central America or the other. Time will tell.

GFS model at 168 hrs showing (yellow area) a wind shift and overall troughof low pressure stretched out over a large area, we call this a “monsoon trough” and it can lead to development if conditions allow

Then there is this interesting set up taking shape: The ECMWF (Euro) is indicating the possibility of an easterly wave (tropical wave) trying to develop way out in the deep tropics between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Remember, water temps out this way are running above the long term average. If we do in fact see a strong area of energy emerge from Africa, it could take advantage of the warmer water and more favorable conditions overall  and try to develop some. This would be highly unusual and a significant sign in my opinion that this season could be quite busy. Again, time will tell.

We live in an age when computer guidance and satellite information allows us to see in to the future of weather forecasting better than ever before. These early warning signs are helpful since we should no longer be totally caught off guard. It may not prevent a “Labor Day hurricane of 1935” scenario in which case we saw a TS become a Cat-5 hurricane in a very short amount of time but the advances in technology now allows us to be more aware than ever that a threat from the tropics is looming (or could be looming). My point is, do not be alarmed or worried. There’s no reason for that. Instead, be aware. We were told the season could be busier than average and these are possible signs of that happening. So just take note and pay attention a little more than normal perhaps. Applaud the fact that we have such tools at our disposal and as long as we know how to interpret them, it can be a good thing. After all, with such much at stake along our coastlines (all of us, not just the USA), the more lead-time the better; at least I think so anyway.

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