Pine Belt Weather Alerts
Winter Storm Warning United StatesNational Weather Alerts

Winter Storm Warning
...winter Storm Warning Remains In Effect From 6 Pm This Evening To Noon Akst Monday... * What...heavy Wet Snow. Total Snow Accumulations Of 12 To 16 Inches Are Expected. * Where...white Pass On Klondike Highway, Mainly Above 2500 Feet. * When...snowfall Will Begin Sunday Evening With Greatest ...Read More.
Effective: December 10, 2017 at 3:40pmExpires: December 11, 2017 at 12:00pmTarget Area: Taiya Inlet and Klondike Highway

Winter Storm Warning
...winter Storm Warning Remains In Effect Until 9 Pm Akst Monday... * What...strong Winds And Near Blizzard Conditions. Plan On Difficult Travel Conditions. Winds Gusting To 60 Mph Are Expected. Total Snow Accumulations Of 4 To 6 Inches Are Expected. Visibility Will Be Near Zero At Times In Snow And ...Read More.
Effective: December 10, 2017 at 12:53pmExpires: December 11, 2017 at 9:00pmTarget Area: St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast

Winter Storm Warning
...winter Storm Warning Remains In Effect From 3 Am Monday To Noon Akst Tuesday... * What...heavy Snow Expected. Plan On Difficult Travel Conditions. Total Snow Accumulations 6 To 12 Inches, Heaviest From The Dalton Highway West. * Where...from The Dalton Highway West. ...Read More.
Effective: December 10, 2017 at 12:53pmExpires: December 12, 2017 at 12:00pmTarget Area: Southeastern Brooks Range

Winter Storm Warning
...winter Storm Warning Remains In Effect From 3 Am Monday To Noon Akst Tuesday... * What...heavy Snow And Blowing Snow Expected. Plan On Difficult Travel Conditions. Total Snow Accumulations Of 4 To 8 Inches, With Localized Amounts Up To 10 Inches Northwest Of Allakaket. Blowing Snow Will Cause Low Visibility Over Dalton Highway ...Read More.
Effective: December 10, 2017 at 12:53pmExpires: December 12, 2017 at 12:00pmTarget Area: Upper Koyukuk Valley

Winter Storm Warning
...winter Storm Warning Remains In Effect From 6 Am Monday To 3 Pm Akst Tuesday... * What...heavy Snow And Blowing Snow Expected. Total Snow Accumulations Of 6 To 12 Inches Expected. Blowing Snow Will Cause Areas Of Low Visibility. * Where...upper Kobuk And Noatak Valleys. ...Read More.
Effective: December 10, 2017 at 12:53pmExpires: December 12, 2017 at 3:00pmTarget Area: Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys

Freeze Warning
...frost Advisories And Freeze Warnings In Effect For The Tri- State Area Tonight... ...freeze Warning In Effect From 11 Pm Est /10 Pm Cst/ This Evening To 8 Am Est /7 Am Cst/ Monday... The National Weather Service In Tallahassee Has Issued A Freeze Warning, Which Is In Effect From 11 Pm Est /10 Pm Cst/ This ...Read More.
Effective: December 10, 2017 at 11:47amExpires: December 11, 2017 at 7:00amTarget Area: Coffee; Dale; Geneva; Henry; Houston

Freeze Warning
...freeze Warning Remains In Effect From 1 Am To 9 Am Est Monday... * Temperature...27 To 32 Degrees For 6 To 8 Hours Tonight. * Impacts...freezing Temperatures Can Harm Vulnerable Plants, Animals And Those Sensitive To Cold. Areas Of Inland Frost Are Expected Tonight ...Read More.
Effective: December 10, 2017 at 9:37pmExpires: December 11, 2017 at 9:00amTarget Area: Alachua; Baker; Bradford; Clay; Inland Duval; Inland Nassau; Marion; Putnam; Union

Freeze Warning
...freeze Warning In Effect From 4 Am To 8 Am Est Monday... .a Cold And Dry Airmass Will Remain In Place Across The Area Tonight. Light Winds Will Allow Temperatures To Fall Below Freezing For A Few Hours Toward Sunrise. ...freeze Warning Remains In Effect From 4 Am To 8 Am Est Monday... ...Read More.
Effective: December 10, 2017 at 8:25pmExpires: December 11, 2017 at 8:00amTarget Area: Coastal Citrus; Coastal Hernando; Coastal Levy; Inland Citrus; Inland Hernando; Inland Levy; Inland Pasco; Sumter

Freeze Warning
...frost Advisories And Freeze Warnings In Effect For The Tri- State Area Tonight... ...freeze Warning In Effect From 11 Pm Est /10 Pm Cst/ This Evening To 8 Am Est /7 Am Cst/ Monday... The National Weather Service In Tallahassee Has Issued A Freeze Warning, Which Is In Effect From 11 Pm Est /10 Pm Cst/ This ...Read More.
Effective: December 10, 2017 at 12:47pmExpires: December 11, 2017 at 8:00amTarget Area: Calhoun; Central Walton; Gadsden; Holmes; Inland Bay; Inland Dixie; Inland Franklin; Inland Gulf; Inland Jefferson; Inland Taylor; Inland Wakulla; Jackson; Lafayette; Leon; Liberty; Madison; North Walton; Washington

Freeze Warning
...frost Advisories And Freeze Warnings In Effect For The Tri- State Area Tonight... ...freeze Warning In Effect From 11 Pm This Evening To 8 Am Est Monday... The National Weather Service In Tallahassee Has Issued A Freeze Warning, Which Is In Effect From 11 Pm This Evening To 8 Am Est ...Read More.
Effective: December 10, 2017 at 12:47pmExpires: December 11, 2017 at 8:00amTarget Area: Coastal Dixie; Coastal Jefferson; Coastal Taylor; Coastal Wakulla

Freeze Warning
...freeze Warning Remains In Effect From 1 Am To 9 Am Est Monday... * Temperature...27 To 32 Degrees For 6 To 8 Hours Tonight. * Impacts...freezing Temperatures Can Harm Vulnerable Plants, Animals And Those Sensitive To Cold. Areas Of Inland Frost Are Expected Tonight ...Read More.
Effective: December 10, 2017 at 9:37pmExpires: December 11, 2017 at 9:00amTarget Area: Appling; Atkinson; Bacon; Brantley; Charlton; Clinch; Coastal Camden; Coastal Glynn; Coffee; Inland Camden; Inland Glynn; Jeff Davis; Pierce; Ware; Wayne

Freeze Warning
...frost Advisories And Freeze Warnings In Effect For The Tri- State Area Tonight... ...freeze Warning In Effect From 11 Pm Est /10 Pm Cst/ This Evening To 8 Am Est /7 Am Cst/ Monday... The National Weather Service In Tallahassee Has Issued A Freeze Warning, Which Is In Effect From 11 Pm Est /10 Pm Cst/ This ...Read More.
Effective: December 10, 2017 at 12:47pmExpires: December 11, 2017 at 8:00amTarget Area: Baker; Ben Hill; Berrien; Brooks; Calhoun; Clay; Colquitt; Cook; Decatur; Dougherty; Early; Grady; Irwin; Lanier; Lee; Lowndes; Miller; Mitchell; Quitman; Randolph; Seminole; Terrell; Thomas; Tift; Turner; Worth

High Wind Warning
...high Wind Warning In Effect From 10 Pm This Evening To 2 Am Akst Monday... The National Weather Service In Anchorage Has Issued A High Wind Warning, Which Is In Effect From 10 Pm This Evening To 2 Am Akst Monday. The High Wind Watch Is No Longer In Effect. * Wind...east Wind 40 To 55 Mph With Gusts To 75 Mph. ...Read More.
Effective: December 10, 2017 at 3:45pmExpires: December 11, 2017 at 2:00amTarget Area: Southeast Prince William Sound

High Wind Warning
...high Wind Warning In Effect From Midnight Tonight To 6 Am Akst Monday Through Turnagain Arm And Portage Valley... The National Weather Service In Anchorage Has Issued A High Wind Warning, Which Is In Effect From Midnight Tonight To 6 Am Akst Monday. The High Wind Watch Is No Longer In Effect. * Location...through Turnagain Arm And Portage Valley. ...Read More.
Effective: December 10, 2017 at 3:45pmExpires: December 11, 2017 at 6:00amTarget Area: Western Prince William Sound

High Wind Warning
...high Wind Warning In Effect From 3 Am To 9 Am Akst Monday Along Turnagain Arm And Higher Elevations... The National Weather Service In Anchorage Has Issued A High Wind Warning, Which Is In Effect From 3 Am To 9 Am Akst Monday. The High Wind Watch Is No Longer In Effect. * Location...along Turnagain Arm And Higher Elevations. ...Read More.
Effective: December 10, 2017 at 3:45pmExpires: December 11, 2017 at 9:00amTarget Area: Anchorage

High Wind Warning
...high Wind Warning In Effect From 10 Pm This Evening To 2 Am Akst Monday... The National Weather Service In Anchorage Has Issued A High Wind Warning, Which Is In Effect From 10 Pm This Evening To 2 Am Akst Monday. The High Wind Watch Is No Longer In Effect. * Wind...east Wind 40 To 55 Mph With Possible Gusts To 75 Mph. ...Read More.
Effective: December 10, 2017 at 3:25pmExpires: December 11, 2017 at 2:00amTarget Area: Southeast Prince William Sound

High Wind Warning
...high Wind Warning In Effect From Midnight Tonight To 6 Am Akst Monday Through Turnagain Arm And Portage Valley... The National Weather Service In Anchorage Has Issued A High Wind Warning, Which Is In Effect From Midnight Tonight To 6 Am Akst Monday. The High Wind Watch Is No Longer In Effect. * Location...through Turnagain Arm And Portage Valley. ...Read More.
Effective: December 10, 2017 at 3:25pmExpires: December 11, 2017 at 6:00amTarget Area: Western Prince William Sound

High Wind Warning
...high Wind Warning In Effect From 3 Am To 9 Am Akst Monday Along Turnagain Arm And Higher Elevations... The National Weather Service In Anchorage Has Issued A High Wind Warning, Which Is In Effect From 3 Am To 9 Am Akst Monday. The High Wind Watch Is No Longer In Effect. * Location...along Turnagain Arm And Higher Elevations. ...Read More.
Effective: December 10, 2017 at 3:25pmExpires: December 11, 2017 at 9:00amTarget Area: Anchorage

High Wind Warning
...high Wind Warning In Effect From Midnight Tonight To 6 Pm Akst Monday... The National Weather Service In Fairbanks Has Issued A High Wind Warning, Which Is In Effect From Midnight Tonight To 6 Pm Akst Monday. * Location...near The Alaska Range. ...Read More.
Effective: December 10, 2017 at 12:22pmExpires: December 11, 2017 at 6:00pmTarget Area: Upper Kuskokwim Valley

High Wind Warning
...high Wind Warning Now In Effect Until 6 Pm Akst Monday... * Location...near The Alaska Range Including Delta Junction. * Winds...southeast Winds Gusting To 70 Mph. * Timing...winds Will Decrease Slightly This Afternoon And Evening, But Then Become Very Strong Late Tonight Through Monday Afternoon. The Strongest Winds Are Expected From Midnight ...Read More.
Effective: December 10, 2017 at 12:21pmExpires: December 11, 2017 at 6:00pmTarget Area: Deltana and Tanana Flats

High Wind Warning
...high Wind Warning Now In Effect Until 6 Pm Akst Monday... * Location...through Passes And Along The North Side Of The Alaska Range. * Winds...south Gusting To 80 Mph. * Timing...winds Will Decrease Slightly This Afternoon And Evening, But Then Become Very Strong Late Tonight Through Monday ...Read More.
Effective: December 10, 2017 at 12:21pmExpires: December 11, 2017 at 6:00pmTarget Area: Denali

High Wind Warning
...high Wind Warning Now In Effect Until 6 Pm Akst Monday... * Location...through Passes And Along The North Side Of The Alaska Range. * Winds...south Gusting To 85 Mph. * Timing...winds Will Decrease Slightly This Afternoon And Evening, But Then Become Very Strong Late Tonight Through Monday ...Read More.
Effective: December 10, 2017 at 12:21pmExpires: December 11, 2017 at 6:00pmTarget Area: Eastern Alaska Range

High Wind Warning
...high Wind Warning In Effect From 9 Pm This Evening To 6 Pm Akst Monday... The National Weather Service In Fairbanks Has Issued A High Wind Warning, Which Is In Effect From 9 Pm This Evening To 6 Pm Akst Monday. * Location...along The Alaska Highway From Dot Lake To Tanacross. ...Read More.
Effective: December 10, 2017 at 12:21pmExpires: December 11, 2017 at 6:00pmTarget Area: Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country

High Wind Warning
...high Wind Speeds Overnight... ...high Wind Warning In Effect Until 4 Am Mst Monday... The National Weather Service In Glasgow Has Issued A High Wind Warning, Which Is In Effect Until 4 Am Mst Monday. * Winds...northwest 40 To 50 Mph With Gusts Up To 60 Mph. * Timing...tonight And Through The Overnight Hours. ...Read More.
Effective: December 10, 2017 at 10:19pmExpires: December 11, 2017 at 4:00amTarget Area: Sheridan

Sep 04

The National Hurricane Center Is A Trusted Source As Worrisome Hurricane Irma Looms

Ok, folks, I am officially concerned, and I usually try to be measured. It is Labor Day, and many people are enjoying the day off. There is a group of professionals, however, that is working very hard today as the increasingly worrisome threat of Hurricane Irma looms. For colleagues at the National Hurricane Center, the peak in the Atlantic basin hurricane season is approaching. This has been an active year, as predicted. Irma has me and other meteorologists particularly concerned. Over the weekend, I sat back on Twitter and watched the sheer volume of tweets, updates, opinions, hyperbole, hype, excitement, and dread associated with Irma. There was even one unfortunate “article” that made the rounds talking about hurricane categories that do not even exist. All of this made me wonder how the non-meteorologically attentive public (people like my mother or Barber) can stay focused on a clear signal with such overload of information. The National Hurricane Center is a trusted source that I wanted to highlight on this Labor Day as Hurricane Irma grabs the news cycle.

NOAA NHC

5-day forecast as of Labor Day morning.

However, it is prudent to provide an update on Irma. Hurricane Irma is a grave threat to residents in the Caribbean region and looks to be an equally worrisome threat for the contiguous United States. Irma is a category 3 hurricane and just to the east of Leeward Islands where hurricane watches have been issued. The latest 5-day forecast (above) is ominous, and I have distilled some important points from the 5:00 am AST NHC forecast discussion,

the global models have been trending toward quickly lifting the trough out over New England and eastern Canada on days 4 and 5, with the subtropical ridge building westward toward Florida. As a result, it’s becoming increasingly likely that Irma would maintain a west-northwestward heading on days 3 through 5, and the track guidance shifted significantly westward on this cycle during that period. Remarkably, the track models are very tightly clustered through day 5, which increases the confidence in the westward shift of the latest NHC forecast.

As the National Hurricane Center notes, it is too early to know the specific “where and when” of downstream impacts on the U.S. mainland. However, the statement about models being clustered indicates that there is growing consensus on how meteorological patterns are setting up to steer the storm. My meteorological “eye” sees a threat to Florida to the Carolinas (and possibly even a slight chance of moving into the Gulf of Mexico). I also see the potential for Irma maintaining category 3 or greater intensity. Tropical storm force winds could be impacting some of these regions within the next 1-5 days.

NWS NHC

Tropical storm wind speed probabilities (4.5 days)

Ok, let’s get back to National Hurricane Center (NHC) “101”. The NHC is actually a part of the National Weather Service (NWS). When I tweeted my thoughts on sifting through “hurricane information overload,” NWS Storm Prediction Center meteorologist Roger Edwards responded, “If more and more of us directly to the sole official forecast source (NHC), the info asymptotically approaches consistency.” There is certainly value in multiple messaging from different sources and colleagues so do not miss what I am saying. However, when you have people posting fake hurricane tracks or articles about category 7 hurricanes, Roger’s point is well-taken. NHC’s website points out,

NHC is a component of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) located at Florida International University in Miami, Florida. The NHC mission is to save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts, and analyses of hazardous tropical weather and by increasing understanding of these hazards. The NHC vision is to be America’s calm, clear, and trusted voice in the eye of the storm and, with its partners, enable communities to be safe from tropical weather threats.

 

NOAA NWS

NWS Organizational Chart

NHC is broken up into several units and has a Director (or currently an Acting Director in Dr. Ed Rappaport). These units as described on the NHC website are:

The Hurricane Specialist Unit (HSU) maintains a continuous watch on tropical cyclones and areas of disturbed weather within the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. The HSU prepares and issues analyses and forecasts in the form of text advisories and graphical products. The HSU issues coastal tropical cyclone watches and warnings for the United States and its Caribbean territories and provides watch and warning recommendations to other World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Region IV meteorological services.

The Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB)generates analyses and forecasts over the tropical and subtropical eastern North and South Pacific and the North Atlantic basins year-round.

The Technology & Science Branch (TSB), often in conjunction with other government and academic entities, develops and transitions new tools and techniques into operations for tropical weather prediction.

Dr. Marshall Shepherd, Dir., Atmospheric Sciences Program/GA Athletic Assoc. Distinguished Professor (Univ of Georgia), Host, Weather Channel’s Sunday Talk Show, Weather (Wx) Geeks, 2013 AMS President

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