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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006
...ERNESTO INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...
...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS AFFECTING THE
FLORIDA KEYS...FLORIDA BAY...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST
HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND
NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH ON THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTHWARD...AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND
NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER...INCLUDING ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD
TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE
BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
THIS MORNING.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED BY DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR LATITUDE 25.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST OR IN NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTY FLORIDA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 45 MILES... 75 KM...
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA AND ABOUT 90 MILES...145
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.
A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION
REMAINING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ERNESTO COULD WEAKEN TO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. HOWEVER... RAINBANDS CONTAINING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ONSHORE TODAY IN THE WARNING AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER. RECENTLY A WIND GUST TO 58 MPH WAS REPORTED AT THE
FOWEY ROCKS C-MAN STATION...AND WINDS GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...AND OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTIES.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF
ERNESTO OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE BAHAMAS. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD WELL IN ADVANCE OF
ERNESTO THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS TODAY. THIS COULD
BRING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN
MARYLAND...AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...25.6 N...80.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT
FORECASTER STEWART
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006
...ERNESTO LINGERING JUST OFF OF PLANTATION KEY...
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
NORTH OF BONITA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...AND THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FLORIDA IS ALSO
DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH ON THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTHWARD...AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND
NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA...INCLUDING ALL THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO
CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE
BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST OR ABOUT 15
MILES... 25 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KEY LARGO FLORIDA AND ABOUT 65
MILES...105 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. THIS POSITION IS
JUST A FEW MILES SOUTHEAST OF ISLAMORADA.
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE
NORTH WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO SHOULD REMAIN
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ERNESTO COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF
ERNESTO OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE BAHAMAS. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD WELL IN ADVANCE OF
ERNESTO THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD
BRING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN
MARYLAND...AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...24.9 N...80.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006
...OUTER RAINBANDS OF ERNESTO SPREADING OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...SOME STRENGTHENING STILL EXPECTED...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...INCLUDING
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST
COAST...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY
TORTUGAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST
NORTH OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND
GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND/OR A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE GEORGIA COAST AND FOR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD...AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 135
MILES...220 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 135
MILES...220 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEARING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RAINS AND SQUALLS WITH
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ARRIVING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
CENTER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES
FLORIDA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF
ERNESTO OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE BAHAMAS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE
KEYS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...23.9 N...79.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER
19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006
...ERNESTO MOVING OVER WATER JUST TO THE NORTH OF CUBA...EXPECTED
TO
STRENGTHEN...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT
FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND
FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER THIS MORNING.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH
NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND
GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR CUBA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 200
MILES...320 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND
ABOUT 215 MILES
...350 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE NEAR THE
FLORIDA KEYS OR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...
SQUALLY RAINBANDS WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE THESE AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
CENTRAL CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
BAHAMAS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...22.8 N...79.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006
...CENTER OF ERNESTO STILL OVER CUBA...
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AND HURRICANE
WATCH ARE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM
CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE
EAST COAST...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND
FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH
NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO NEW
SMYRNA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND
GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...
AND CAMAGUEY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR INLAND
OVER CUBA ABOUT 20 MILES...30 KM...NORTH OF CAMAGUEY. THIS POSITION
IS ALSO ABOUT 325 MILES...520 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
AND ABOUT 320 MILES ...515 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12
MPH...19 KM/HR.
A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING OVER WATER EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND BE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AFTER ERNESTO MOVES INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
HAITI. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
CENTRAL CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
BAHAMAS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...21.7 N...77.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER
17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
800 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006
...CENTER OF ERNESTO STILL INLAND OVER CUBA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR
FLORIDA FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...FROM
SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
CHOKOLOSKEE NORTHWARD
TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO NEW
SMYRNA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS...THE BIMINIS AND...GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND
GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND
CAMAGUEY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS JUST INLAND OVER EASTERN CUBA...ABOUT 30 MILES...
45 KM...EAST OF CAMAGUEY.
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING
TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...19 KM/HR. HOWEVER...A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA INTO THE ATLANTIC
DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER
WATER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74
INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
HAITI. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
CENTRAL CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
BAHAMAS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...21.4 N...77.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
800 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006
...ERNESTO MOVING ONSHORE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA......HEAVY
RAINS...FLOODS...AND MUD SLIDES STILL A SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FOR HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA OF
FLORIDA FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM
SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN
REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.
AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI ARE DISCONTINUED.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND
CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT
EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS ON THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA ABOUT 20 MILES...30
KM...WEST OF GUANTANAMO.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING OVER EASTERN CUBA
TODAY...AND POSSIBLY EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA LATER
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45
MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS
ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
STORM TIDES AND WAVES SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF EASTERN CUBA TODAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.
REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...19.9 N...75.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006
...ERNESTO CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE BAHAMAS.
AT 11 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 11 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 11 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE
WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...
FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...
GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND
CAYMAN BRAC.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST OR ABOUT 155
MILES...255 KM...WEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 115 MILES...
185 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL BE
VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA TOMORROW MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN STRENGTH AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM
THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HAITI...AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AS
IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
TO THE EAST THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65
INCHES.
TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL...ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ON THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...18.6 N...74.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006
...ERNESTO WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE BUT TORRENTIAL RAINS
CONTINUE...
AT 8 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC...AND THE HURRICANE
WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS...
FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT. WATCHES MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL OR NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...
GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
RE-LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI...AND ABOUT
140 MILES...225 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...12
KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL MOVE AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI
TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA MONDAY
MORNING.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50
MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AFTER
IT MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI AND IT COULD REGAIN HURRICANE
STATUS BEFORE IT REACHES THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA TOMORROW
MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004
MB...29.65 INCHES.
TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF EASTERN CUBA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...18.2 N...74.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006
...ERNESTO MOVING NEAR THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI...MAY
HAVE
WEAKENED BUT BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS TO HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...
RANMA... OLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA
KEYS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST OR ABOUT
105 MILES...165 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND
ABOUT 165 MILES...260 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15
KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL PASS VERY NEAR
THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND BE
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA MONDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE
INDICATE
THAT ERNESTO MAY HAVE WEAKENED BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...AND
IF
THIS IS CONFIRMED THE SYSTEM WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM
ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. STRENGTHENING IS NOT LIKELY UNTIL THE CENTER
MOVES AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINOUS SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59
INCHES.
TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF EASTERN CUBA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...17.8 N...73.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006
...ERNESTO CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF
HAITI...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO
DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA
KEYS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES...
185 KM...SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 205 MILES...330
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15
KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY NEAR
THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING
...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA MONDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
ERNESTO COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE
COAST OF CUBA.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15
MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44
INCHES.
TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF EASTERN CUBA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...17.6 N...73.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006
...ERNESTO...NOW A HURRICANE...APPROACHING
THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA
OF HAITI...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF
HISPANIOLA...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI
FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN
EASTERN CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA
AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA
KEYS LATER TODAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST OR ABOUT 115
MILES...180 KM...SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT
210 MILES...340 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS
EXPECTED TO PASS VERY NEAR SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING ...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA
MONDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF CUBA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
APPROACHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA.
REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...17.3 N...73.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 11...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006
...CORRECTED TO ADD DEFINITION OF A HURRICANE WARNING...
...ERNESTO RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING TO NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN
EASTERN CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA
AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS LATER TODAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST OR ABOUT 120
MILES...195 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT
255 MILES...410 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PASS
VERY NEAR SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING
...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA MONDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE LATER THIS
MORNING...AND A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF
CUBA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
APPROACHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO MAY
PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS.
REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...17.0 N...73.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006
...ERNESTO GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED SOUTH OF HAITI...
...HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN
EASTERN CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST OR ABOUT 130
MILES...215 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT
285 MILES...455 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PASS
NEAR WESTERN HAITI AND JAMAICA LATER TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.35 INCHES.
TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
APPROACHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO MAY
PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS.
REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...16.7 N...72.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER
9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006
...OUTER RAINBANDS OF ERNESTO ABOUT TO MOVE OVER HISPANIOLA...VERY
HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN
EASTERN CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST OR ABOUT
145 MILES...235 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND
ABOUT 310 MILES...455 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND NEAR JAMAICA ON SUNDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT
APPROACHES JAMAICA AND WESTERN HAITI ON SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER WAS
997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
APPROACHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO
ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES IN HIGHER
TERRAIN...ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
ALSO...THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO MAY PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...16.5 N...72.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/MAINELLI
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 25 2006
...ERNESTO SLIGHTLY STRONGER OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.1 WEST OR ABOUT 260
MILES...420 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 555 MILES...895 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON
JAMAICA.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE PASSING NEAR THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ERNESTO OVERNIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ERNESTO ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
HAITI...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...14.8 N...69.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB
TODAY IS
Thu Nov 20 9:00:pm CST 2008
000
ABNT20 KNHC 202354
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST THU NOV 20 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FROM AUG 4 2006-
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY
NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006
...CENTER OF CHRIS PASSING JUST NORTH OF BARBUDA IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM...NORTH OF BARBUDA IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER
THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE CHRIS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...18.3 N...61.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
-The 2006 Hurricane Season began June 1 -
As we enter into the 2006 Hurricane season we all are hoping that the likes
of Season 2005 will never been seen by any area again. It was the most
devastating and costly on record.
(click
here for 2005 achieves)
BE PREPARED - HAVE A PLAN
PLEASE USE THE MENU ABOVE TO NAVIGATE THIS SITE, OR CLICK HERE FOR LATEST STORM INFO, THIS SITE HAS LIVE UPDATE FEEDS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED IN THE BLOG SECTION AND ON THE LATEST INFO PAGE. IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO SUBMIT PHOTOS, OR INFORMATION ON YOUR AREA PLEASE SEND IT TO INFO@GULFCOASTHURRICANECENTER.COM
PLEASE
ALSO STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FOR YOUR LOCAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS!
The Gulf Coast Hurricane Information Center is designed and offered to
bring you all the helpful hurricane information you need at one website.
We encourage viewer interaction thru our blogs, chatrooms, and by sending in
their pictures and stories.
However please be advised that we are NOT meteorologists, a News Agency,
Hurricane Hunters, or an Assistance or Relief Organization. We are however
life long coastal residents who have been thru many hurricanes and have the
abilities to provide this resource. It is run strictly on a volunteer basis.
We hope that no one will ever need several of the pages created for this
site, but it is there if you need it. If you know of a site, resource or
anything else that could be added to assist anyone we encourage you to send
it in to
suggestions@gulfcoasthurricanecenter.com Our Goal to be on-line by
July 1, 2005, has been rushed by the early appearance on June 8, 2005 of
Tropical Depression #1. So if you find an area still under construction or
sparsely populated please hang in there, we are still working to bring the
site up to speed.
Where we get our information..
Our information is gathered from several of the official sites you will find listed in the menu under the category called "other sites" if there is a storm nearing you please always keep a radio or TV on and check the official sites for constant updates, they have the staff 24/7 and ALWAYS have the updates before we do. We strongly suggest you never rely on only 1 source for your storm information.
Our focus area..
Our office and homes are located on the Gulf of Mexico in Jackson County
Mississippi, last year we caught the outskirts of Ivan and by
chance our constant updates to one of our local community sites, some how
morphed into what is now commonly known as a "blog". The continued
popularity of this site even 10 months later left us with the idea that
there is a strong interest to have information centrally located and easy to
find. Thus the birth of the Gulf Coast Hurricane Information Center. Since
we are located on the Mississippi Gulf Coast we have many local resources
readily available to us, however we intend to keep everyone updated whenever
a storm is in the Atlantic/ Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. We urge people to
send in their local Civil Defense Contact Information and Phone Numbers so
that we can serve your area as thoroughly as we serve our own. Send your
information to
info@gulfcoasthurricanecenter.com
