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Feb 11

Why a 50% chance of rain usually means a 100% chance of confusion.

It’s one of the most misunderstood terms in all of the weather, the chance of rain. You hear it and see it in just about every weather forecast nowadays, but few people understand exactly what it means. Whenever people hear the chance of rain, I find that every person interprets it slightly differently. So when …

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Feb 04

Snow to pick up in typical La Nina late winter areas

With the dip in the SOI, storminess will increase and snow will occur but note until the SSW induced tanking of the AO and then NAO, it will be messy along the southern edges of the snow with ice and mixed precipitation. The next 10 days in the ECMWF and GEM. The next 16 and 15 day in the GFS and EPS. Models …

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Feb 03

Lot’s to Talk about on What’s ahead for us this year!!!

There is much to talk about this morning First of all the European ensembles which earlier in the week had a warm looking 10-15 ( still do) have a cold looking 6-10 ( the period that was supposed to be warming from a few days ago 1-5 6-10 So we get almost halfway through the …

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Feb 03

Warming arctic at 30mb

Some recent SSWs – 2009. and 2001. AO is drifting down. It should accelerate. the GEFS sees the normal -AO temperature anomalies across the hemisphere. The 16 day GFS shows the dominance of the cold. The EC is splitting the cold polar vortex, A lot of uncertainty among the model ensembles on the AO.

Feb 02

The Euro is Flat Out Strange

So we go from this on the 00z turn from Wednesday evening that the entire weekly package was based on For 00z Friday Feb 16 to this at 12z yesterday this at 00z to this at 12z today The latest 260 hour for Feb 17 Lets see ridge near the west coast, trough se of …

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Feb 02

UPDATE: The new European is warm. I don’t believe it!!!

This looks like the ANTILOG to what we look for to get warmth over the eastern U.S. The model run is very warm and bearish, once past the front 10 days, however. The 500 mb pattern for the week ending February 12: The week ending February 19: The week ending February 26: To be blunt, …

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Feb 02

Euro Temp Update

It is hard to believe this kind of flip in the model, given the analogs and the actual weather in the source regions which argue for the opposite. I would be remiss to simply ignore this, I did not expect it. I still don’t believe this, but it’s simply too much to ignore or throw …

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Jan 20

2018 Hurricane Prediction – Strongest Cycle in 70 Years

GWO was cited by media as the only organization correctly predicting last year’s Atlantic hurricane season and destructive landfalls OCALA, FLA. (PRWEB) JANUARY 18, 2018 Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) was cited by news media as the only major hurricane prediction organization that correctly predicted the hyperactive 2017 Atlantic hurricane season from beginning to end, and the destructive …

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Jan 12

Next week Fits Pattern Recognition ideas – Snow to the Gulf Coast!!!

I like the storm next week, The models have a problem that most likely will affect the US model more in that the real storm will be the second piece of energy that comes down, This is NOT A TRANSFER TO THE COAST STORM, It is a storm moving through the lakes dying with a …

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Jan 11

Frigid late December to early January impacts linger

Many who normally ‘call for’ oil delivery are still struggling to keep the furnaces going. Oil and propane companies were not prepared for the cold. NOAA had forecast a better than 40% chance the winter would be warm. The HDD’s were trailing for the heating season with fall warmth. We had warned of a cold …

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Dec 29

Could the brutal cold period also see a blizzard?

It is another frigid morning int the Great Lakes and Northeast states. As we showed in the region update, Lake Effect has really kicked in with a record snow blitz in Erie PA with well over 5 feet os snow since just before Christmas. See the cold the next 5 days. The following 5 days …

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Dec 21

Crucial Linkage to 95-96 in SST,MJO

When was the last time in December people were fired up about the rest of the winter? We continue to see links to 95-96. The SST has cooled in the eastern Indian ocean northwest of Australia and is similar in the east pac off south America, and the water is normal to above in the northeast Pacific …

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Dec 19

Ice and snow to come with the cold – models struggle with details

The cold is coming, See the paint bomb on the 15 day ensemble EPS. That usually means trouble around the edges. In today’s regional update we looked at the last 4 runs of the GFS for the south central – each very different and with one at 00Z off the charts for ice. I looked then at …

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Dec 19

Euro Weekly Comment ( temperatures)

December 18, 2017 The Euro’s first three weeks are very cold. The week ending December 29: The week ending January 5: The week ending January 12: Then the flip occurs on the model. The week ending January 19: The week ending January 26: The week ending February 2: The 46 day total is cold, because …

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Dec 19

Euro Weekly Comment ( 500)

December 18, 2017 Euro forecasting a huge flip after Week 3. It’s warmer, but inherent model problems limit me taking a stand. The model is notoriously too warm in the longer term. There will be no changes to the January forecast now due to very cold start and uncertainty of the models’ prowess. Literally, the …

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