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February 2018 archive

Feb 11

Why a 50% chance of rain usually means a 100% chance of confusion.

It’s one of the most misunderstood terms in all of the weather, the chance of rain. You hear it and see it in just about every weather forecast nowadays, but few people understand exactly what it means. Whenever people hear the chance of rain, I find that every person interprets it slightly differently. So when …

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Feb 04

Snow to pick up in typical La Nina late winter areas

With the dip in the SOI, storminess will increase and snow will occur but note until the SSW induced tanking of the AO and then NAO, it will be messy along the southern edges of the snow with ice and mixed precipitation. The next 10 days in the ECMWF and GEM. The next 16 and 15 day in the GFS and EPS. Models …

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Feb 03

Lot’s to Talk about on What’s ahead for us this year!!!

There is much to talk about this morning First of all the European ensembles which earlier in the week had a warm looking 10-15 ( still do) have a cold looking 6-10 ( the period that was supposed to be warming from a few days ago 1-5 6-10 So we get almost halfway through the …

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Feb 03

Warming arctic at 30mb

Some recent SSWs – 2009. and 2001. AO is drifting down. It should accelerate. the GEFS sees the normal -AO temperature anomalies across the hemisphere. The 16 day GFS shows the dominance of the cold. The EC is splitting the cold polar vortex, A lot of uncertainty among the model ensembles on the AO.

Feb 02

The Euro is Flat Out Strange

So we go from this on the 00z turn from Wednesday evening that the entire weekly package was based on For 00z Friday Feb 16 to this at 12z yesterday this at 00z to this at 12z today The latest 260 hour for Feb 17 Lets see ridge near the west coast, trough se of …

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Feb 02

UPDATE: The new European is warm. I don’t believe it!!!

This looks like the ANTILOG to what we look for to get warmth over the eastern U.S. The model run is very warm and bearish, once past the front 10 days, however. The 500 mb pattern for the week ending February 12: The week ending February 19: The week ending February 26: To be blunt, …

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Feb 02

Euro Temp Update

It is hard to believe this kind of flip in the model, given the analogs and the actual weather in the source regions which argue for the opposite. I would be remiss to simply ignore this, I did not expect it. I still don’t believe this, but it’s simply too much to ignore or throw …

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