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December 2017 archive

Dec 31

Cold Weather Safety Tips for your Pets

Exposure to winter’s dry, cold air and chilly rain, sleet and snow can cause chapped paws and itchy, flaking skin, but these aren’t the only discomforts pets can suffer. Winter walks can become downright dangerous if chemicals from ice-melting agents are licked off of bare paws. To help prevent cold weather dangers from affecting your …

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Dec 31

Dangerously Cold New Years Eve and storm may be back

A dangerously cold and massive arctic air mass dominates tNorth America east of the Continental Divide. Anomalies are almost off the scale as people prepare for New Year’s festivities. Temperatures will be below zero across the north and wind chills well below zero for almost half of the nation. Many parts of the midwest will …

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Dec 29

Could the brutal cold period also see a blizzard?

It is another frigid morning int the Great Lakes and Northeast states. As we showed in the region update, Lake Effect has really kicked in with a record snow blitz in Erie PA with well over 5 feet os snow since just before Christmas. See the cold the next 5 days. The following 5 days …

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Dec 27

Reflections on a Cold Winters Eve

The period Dec 21-Jan 10 will be the coldest 20 day period centered on the New Years since 2000-2001 for the nation as a whole. This has been my missive and still is. Chicago today only hit 5 for a high, well under what numbers a week ago had. Chicago is one of my benchmarks …

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Dec 21

Crucial Linkage to 95-96 in SST,MJO

When was the last time in December people were fired up about the rest of the winter? We continue to see links to 95-96. The SST has cooled in the eastern Indian ocean northwest of Australia and is similar in the east pac off south America, and the water is normal to above in the northeast Pacific …

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Dec 19

Ice and snow to come with the cold – models struggle with details

The cold is coming, See the paint bomb on the 15 day ensemble EPS. That usually means trouble around the edges. In today’s regional update we looked at the last 4 runs of the GFS for the south central – each very different and with one at 00Z off the charts for ice. I looked then at …

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Dec 19

Euro Weekly Comment ( temperatures)

December 18, 2017 The Euro’s first three weeks are very cold. The week ending December 29: The week ending January 5: The week ending January 12: Then the flip occurs on the model. The week ending January 19: The week ending January 26: The week ending February 2: The 46 day total is cold, because …

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Dec 19

Euro Weekly Comment ( 500)

December 18, 2017 Euro forecasting a huge flip after Week 3. It’s warmer, but inherent model problems limit me taking a stand. The model is notoriously too warm in the longer term. There will be no changes to the January forecast now due to very cold start and uncertainty of the models’ prowess. Literally, the …

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Dec 16

Snow or Ice to the Gulf Coast During Christmas week?

The idea of snow or ice to the gulf coast during Christmas week is certainly something modeling is seeing, In fact, a whole battle zone from Texas to the mid-Atlantic states and northeast has the implications of the what the GEFS ensembles are saying. It fits with the push dictated by the models. Very interesting …

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Dec 15

A note on seasonal forecasting and this winter

Seasonal forecasting is still on the cutting edge of the science of meteorology. People hear about the latest seasonal forecast model runs and El Niño/La Niña, but what actually forms our perception of how a season winds up? Is it just perception that judges whether the forecast was successful? Of course, if you are in …

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Dec 15

Record warm Christmas?

While the cold air developing in the arctic is impressive, it may have some side effects. Depending on where the cold air plunges, there will be two compensating ridges (that’s an oversimplification, as the ridges and troughs influence each other). Here is the 500 mb forecast for the last two runs of the GFS for 00z December …

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Dec 15

Model Craziness

This morning I went over the abrupt change in the models from yesterday to today in relation to an Omega Block off the West Coast. Look at the hemispheric Euro from 00z at 500 mb: The new 12z run: The axis of the ridge shifted slightly to the southeast, and this caused the deep closed …

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Dec 15

DAY 11 ANALOGS FROM CPC

One of the analogs is the 1967 example! The surface temps 500 mb 10 days later temps 500 mb 20 days Can you see what goes on here? The extreme event ends the evolution, as it warms after. It’s snowing out here, HARD. Normally I am enjoying the storm, but I am totally immersed in …

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Dec 15

Using the Light of What you Know to Journey to Where You Dont know

Here is how I am looking at this around North America ( What I believe I know) 1 There is tremendous cold air around Canada in the coming weeks. The reversal is displayed across the board. and will make the biggest difference in the plains where its been warm. A brutal 2-3 week is shaping …

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Dec 12

Storms may increase white Christmas odds, threaten holiday travel in midwestern, northeastern US

A stormy pattern in the days leading up to Christmas may increase odds for a white Christmas in the midwestern and northeastern United States but may also pose concerns for holiday travelers. “The weather does not look quiet for the days leading up to Christmas,” AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said, much to the …

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